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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Aug 13

Aug 14

Aug 15

Aug 13

Aug 14

Aug 15

27°C 39%

26°C 26%

28°C 19%

29°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

$25,811 Vol.

27°C 39%

26°C 26%

28°C 19%

29°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

$25,811 Vol.

22°C or below

$1,371 Vol.

1%

23°C

$1,530 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$1,507 Vol.

2%

25°C

$2,859 Vol.

4%

26°C

$2,308 Vol.

26%

27°C

$3,209 Vol.

39%

28°C

$2,759 Vol.

25%

29°C

$5,000 Vol.

8%

30°C

$3,615 Vol.

<1%

31°C

$545 Vol.

<1%

32°C or higher

$1,108 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus guidance indicate overnight minimum temperatures near 27°C on August 14 amid a persistent southwesterly airstream and high humidity, keeping the market-implied probability highest for that outcome. Cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to limit radiative cooling, consistent with climatological August baselines where urban lows rarely fall below 26°C without a significant frontal passage. Recent observations of very hot conditions on the 13th and stable model runs reinforce trader positioning around 26–28°C as the most likely range, while lower probabilities for 25°C or below reflect the low likelihood of enhanced cooling under current synoptic patterns. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final data for resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,811
End Date
Aug 14, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus guidance indicate overnight minimum temperatures near 27°C on August 14 amid a persistent southwesterly airstream and high humidity, keeping the market-implied probability highest for that outcome. Cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to limit radiative cooling, consistent with climatological August baselines where urban lows rarely fall below 26°C without a significant frontal passage. Recent observations of very hot conditions on the 13th and stable model runs reinforce trader positioning around 26–28°C as the most likely range, while lower probabilities for 25°C or below reflect the low likelihood of enhanced cooling under current synoptic patterns. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will provide the final data for resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,811
End Date
Aug 14, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 39%, followed by "26°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?" has generated $25.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?" is "27°C" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.