Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with National Meteorological Center guidance, indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Chengdu on August 14 that favor strong daytime solar heating and a daily maximum near 36–37 °C. Subtropical high pressure dominating the Sichuan basin has suppressed widespread cloud cover and convective rainfall in recent days, allowing surface temperatures to climb above the long-term August average high of roughly 30–32 °C. Ensemble spreads and local boundary-layer moisture variations create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 36 °C and 37 °C, with lower odds assigned to 35 °C or 38 °C outcomes should modest afternoon cloud build-up or slightly stronger winds develop. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine the precise peak before resolution.