Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C on August 16, driven by a strengthened Pacific High promoting subsidence, clear to partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid high humidity. These conditions align with climatological August minima averaging 23.6°C, tempered by the urban heat island effect that retains warmth overnight. Close market pricing between 23°C and 24°C reflects model spread in predicted cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that could enhance cooling through evaporative processes or alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
23°C 56%
24°C 32%
22°C 15%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
7%
21°C
6%
22°C
15%
23°C
34%
24°C
32%
25°C
9%
26°C
6%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 56%
24°C 32%
22°C 15%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$27 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$27 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
7%
21°C
$0 Vol.
6%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$16 Vol.
34%
24°C
$0 Vol.
32%
25°C
$0 Vol.
9%
26°C
$0 Vol.
6%
27°C
$27 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$54 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C on August 16, driven by a strengthened Pacific High promoting subsidence, clear to partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid high humidity. These conditions align with climatological August minima averaging 23.6°C, tempered by the urban heat island effect that retains warmth overnight. Close market pricing between 23°C and 24°C reflects model spread in predicted cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that could enhance cooling through evaporative processes or alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine these variables.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$150End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C on August 16, driven by a strengthened Pacific High promoting subsidence, clear to partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid high humidity. These conditions align with climatological August minima averaging 23.6°C, tempered by the urban heat island effect that retains warmth overnight. Close market pricing between 23°C and 24°C reflects model spread in predicted cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that could enhance cooling through evaporative processes or alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine these variables.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$150End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C on August 16, driven by a strengthened Pacific High promoting subsidence, clear to partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid high humidity. These conditions align with climatological August minima averaging 23.6°C, tempered by the urban heat island effect that retains warmth overnight. Close market pricing between 23°C and 24°C reflects model spread in predicted cloud cover, wind speeds, and any late-day showers that could enhance cooling through evaporative processes or alter boundary-layer mixing. Updated guidance closer to the date will refine these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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