Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14 under a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection, aligning with the market’s 65% implied probability for that outcome. Afternoon temperatures near 37–39°C reflect typical late-summer conditions on the central plateau, where clear skies and light winds favor strong diurnal heating while overnight lows near 24°C limit further buildup. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only modest potential for 39°C if insolation peaks higher than expected, explaining the secondary 23.5% probability there. Trader consensus thus reflects the narrow forecast envelope and climatological norms for the date rather than any extreme heatwave signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
38°C 66%
39°C 23%
37°C 14%
36°C 1.1%
NEW
$43,499 Vol.
NEW
$43,499 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
14%
38°C
66%
39°C
23%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 66%
39°C 23%
37°C 14%
36°C 1.1%
NEW
$43,499 Vol.
NEW
$43,499 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$6,629 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$5,669 Vol.
1%
37°C
$6,584 Vol.
14%
38°C
$7,866 Vol.
66%
39°C
$8,993 Vol.
23%
40°C
$4,634 Vol.
1%
41°C
$1,601 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$713 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$270 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14 under a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection, aligning with the market’s 65% implied probability for that outcome. Afternoon temperatures near 37–39°C reflect typical late-summer conditions on the central plateau, where clear skies and light winds favor strong diurnal heating while overnight lows near 24°C limit further buildup. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only modest potential for 39°C if insolation peaks higher than expected, explaining the secondary 23.5% probability there. Trader consensus thus reflects the narrow forecast envelope and climatological norms for the date rather than any extreme heatwave signal.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$43,499End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14 under a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection, aligning with the market’s 65% implied probability for that outcome. Afternoon temperatures near 37–39°C reflect typical late-summer conditions on the central plateau, where clear skies and light winds favor strong diurnal heating while overnight lows near 24°C limit further buildup. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only modest potential for 39°C if insolation peaks higher than expected, explaining the secondary 23.5% probability there. Trader consensus thus reflects the narrow forecast envelope and climatological norms for the date rather than any extreme heatwave signal.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,499End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14 under a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection, aligning with the market’s 65% implied probability for that outcome. Afternoon temperatures near 37–39°C reflect typical late-summer conditions on the central plateau, where clear skies and light winds favor strong diurnal heating while overnight lows near 24°C limit further buildup. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only modest potential for 39°C if insolation peaks higher than expected, explaining the secondary 23.5% probability there. Trader consensus thus reflects the narrow forecast envelope and climatological norms for the date rather than any extreme heatwave signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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