Forecast models from NOAA and other ensembles indicate Houston's August 15 peak temperature will likely fall in the mid- to upper-90s°F amid typical late-summer high pressure, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong daytime heating. Trader balance between the 94-95°F and 96-97°F bins reflects small but meaningful differences in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover, which can limit insolation and cap maximum readings by 1–3°F. Sea-breeze fronts and isolated thunderstorms may further modulate boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines show August averages near 95°F with occasional pushes above 98°F under clearer, drier conditions. Updated model runs and NHC guidance over the next 24 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 15?
94-95°F 34%
96-97°F 34%
98-99°F 15%
92-93°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
12%
94-95°F
34%
96-97°F
34%
98-99°F
15%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
2%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 34%
96-97°F 34%
98-99°F 15%
92-93°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$141 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$80 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$15 Vol.
12%
94-95°F
$17 Vol.
34%
96-97°F
$77 Vol.
34%
98-99°F
$245 Vol.
15%
100-101°F
$43 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$127 Vol.
2%
104°F or higher
$223 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and other ensembles indicate Houston's August 15 peak temperature will likely fall in the mid- to upper-90s°F amid typical late-summer high pressure, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong daytime heating. Trader balance between the 94-95°F and 96-97°F bins reflects small but meaningful differences in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover, which can limit insolation and cap maximum readings by 1–3°F. Sea-breeze fronts and isolated thunderstorms may further modulate boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines show August averages near 95°F with occasional pushes above 98°F under clearer, drier conditions. Updated model runs and NHC guidance over the next 24 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$968End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and other ensembles indicate Houston's August 15 peak temperature will likely fall in the mid- to upper-90s°F amid typical late-summer high pressure, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong daytime heating. Trader balance between the 94-95°F and 96-97°F bins reflects small but meaningful differences in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover, which can limit insolation and cap maximum readings by 1–3°F. Sea-breeze fronts and isolated thunderstorms may further modulate boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines show August averages near 95°F with occasional pushes above 98°F under clearer, drier conditions. Updated model runs and NHC guidance over the next 24 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$968End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from NOAA and other ensembles indicate Houston's August 15 peak temperature will likely fall in the mid- to upper-90s°F amid typical late-summer high pressure, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong daytime heating. Trader balance between the 94-95°F and 96-97°F bins reflects small but meaningful differences in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover, which can limit insolation and cap maximum readings by 1–3°F. Sea-breeze fronts and isolated thunderstorms may further modulate boundary-layer mixing, while climatological baselines show August averages near 95°F with occasional pushes above 98°F under clearer, drier conditions. Updated model runs and NHC guidance over the next 24 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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