Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights afternoon thunderstorms as the dominant influence on Denver’s August 15 high, with model runs centering the daily maximum near 84–86 °F. Scattered convection, driven by daytime heating and available moisture, can either cap temperatures through early cloud cover and evaporative cooling or allow brief spikes above 85 °F if storms develop after peak insolation. Ensemble spread in the 80–87 °F range reflects modest uncertainty in storm timing and coverage rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Historical mid-August climatology places average highs near 88 °F, so any delay in thunderstorm initiation would push readings toward the upper end of current market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on August 15?
Highest temperature in Denver on August 15?
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 25%
80-81°F 23%
78-79°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 25%
80-81°F 23%
78-79°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$20 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$297 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$22 Vol.
11%
80-81°F
$30 Vol.
23%
82-83°F
$27 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$134 Vol.
25%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$30 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$15 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights afternoon thunderstorms as the dominant influence on Denver’s August 15 high, with model runs centering the daily maximum near 84–86 °F. Scattered convection, driven by daytime heating and available moisture, can either cap temperatures through early cloud cover and evaporative cooling or allow brief spikes above 85 °F if storms develop after peak insolation. Ensemble spread in the 80–87 °F range reflects modest uncertainty in storm timing and coverage rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Historical mid-August climatology places average highs near 88 °F, so any delay in thunderstorm initiation would push readings toward the upper end of current market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$584End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights afternoon thunderstorms as the dominant influence on Denver’s August 15 high, with model runs centering the daily maximum near 84–86 °F. Scattered convection, driven by daytime heating and available moisture, can either cap temperatures through early cloud cover and evaporative cooling or allow brief spikes above 85 °F if storms develop after peak insolation. Ensemble spread in the 80–87 °F range reflects modest uncertainty in storm timing and coverage rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Historical mid-August climatology places average highs near 88 °F, so any delay in thunderstorm initiation would push readings toward the upper end of current market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$584End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights afternoon thunderstorms as the dominant influence on Denver’s August 15 high, with model runs centering the daily maximum near 84–86 °F. Scattered convection, driven by daytime heating and available moisture, can either cap temperatures through early cloud cover and evaporative cooling or allow brief spikes above 85 °F if storms develop after peak insolation. Ensemble spread in the 80–87 °F range reflects modest uncertainty in storm timing and coverage rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Historical mid-August climatology places average highs near 88 °F, so any delay in thunderstorm initiation would push readings toward the upper end of current market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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