Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models for Austin on August 15 point to highs near 100–101°F amid persistent upper-level ridging, southerly flow, and dry conditions that have sustained triple-digit heat through mid-month. This aligns with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 45% implied probability, above the climatological August average high of 96–99°F at Camp Mabry. Recent model runs show limited spread, though afternoon cloud build-up or minor steering changes could trim peaks toward 98–99°F (21.5%) or push them to 102–103°F (14%). Official verification will rely on NWS Austin/San Antonio observations, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance heavily given the short time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 15?
100-101°F 45%
98-99°F 22%
102-103°F 14%
104-105°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
22%
100-101°F
45%
102-103°F
14%
104-105°F
11%
106-107°F
3%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 45%
98-99°F 22%
102-103°F 14%
104-105°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
91°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$104 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$82 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$40 Vol.
22%
100-101°F
$264 Vol.
45%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
14%
104-105°F
$41 Vol.
11%
106-107°F
$49 Vol.
3%
108-109°F
$149 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models for Austin on August 15 point to highs near 100–101°F amid persistent upper-level ridging, southerly flow, and dry conditions that have sustained triple-digit heat through mid-month. This aligns with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 45% implied probability, above the climatological August average high of 96–99°F at Camp Mabry. Recent model runs show limited spread, though afternoon cloud build-up or minor steering changes could trim peaks toward 98–99°F (21.5%) or push them to 102–103°F (14%). Official verification will rely on NWS Austin/San Antonio observations, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance heavily given the short time to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$897End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models for Austin on August 15 point to highs near 100–101°F amid persistent upper-level ridging, southerly flow, and dry conditions that have sustained triple-digit heat through mid-month. This aligns with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 45% implied probability, above the climatological August average high of 96–99°F at Camp Mabry. Recent model runs show limited spread, though afternoon cloud build-up or minor steering changes could trim peaks toward 98–99°F (21.5%) or push them to 102–103°F (14%). Official verification will rely on NWS Austin/San Antonio observations, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance heavily given the short time to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$897End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models for Austin on August 15 point to highs near 100–101°F amid persistent upper-level ridging, southerly flow, and dry conditions that have sustained triple-digit heat through mid-month. This aligns with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 45% implied probability, above the climatological August average high of 96–99°F at Camp Mabry. Recent model runs show limited spread, though afternoon cloud build-up or minor steering changes could trim peaks toward 98–99°F (21.5%) or push them to 102–103°F (14%). Official verification will rely on NWS Austin/San Antonio observations, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic guidance heavily given the short time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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