Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for Seattle point to a high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 15, driving the market's concentration of implied probability on the 78–81°F bins. Onshore marine flow from the Pacific, typical of late-summer conditions, moderates daytime maxima while variable high pressure aloft introduces modest uncertainty in exact peak values. Historical August averages near 77°F at Sea-Tac provide context, yet recent days have trended slightly above normal. Traders weigh these factors against potential afternoon clearing or subtle warming trends ahead of the next model cycle and official forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on August 15?
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 15?
78-79°F 35%
80-81°F 22%
76-77°F 19%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
73°F or below
2%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 35%
80-81°F 22%
76-77°F 19%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$41 Vol.
9%
76-77°F
$11 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$67 Vol.
35%
80-81°F
$56 Vol.
22%
82-83°F
$50 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$151 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$30 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for Seattle point to a high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 15, driving the market's concentration of implied probability on the 78–81°F bins. Onshore marine flow from the Pacific, typical of late-summer conditions, moderates daytime maxima while variable high pressure aloft introduces modest uncertainty in exact peak values. Historical August averages near 77°F at Sea-Tac provide context, yet recent days have trended slightly above normal. Traders weigh these factors against potential afternoon clearing or subtle warming trends ahead of the next model cycle and official forecast updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$431End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for Seattle point to a high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 15, driving the market's concentration of implied probability on the 78–81°F bins. Onshore marine flow from the Pacific, typical of late-summer conditions, moderates daytime maxima while variable high pressure aloft introduces modest uncertainty in exact peak values. Historical August averages near 77°F at Sea-Tac provide context, yet recent days have trended slightly above normal. Traders weigh these factors against potential afternoon clearing or subtle warming trends ahead of the next model cycle and official forecast updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$431End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for Seattle point to a high temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 15, driving the market's concentration of implied probability on the 78–81°F bins. Onshore marine flow from the Pacific, typical of late-summer conditions, moderates daytime maxima while variable high pressure aloft introduces modest uncertainty in exact peak values. Historical August averages near 77°F at Sea-Tac provide context, yet recent days have trended slightly above normal. Traders weigh these factors against potential afternoon clearing or subtle warming trends ahead of the next model cycle and official forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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