**Market-implied odds heavily favor 25°C (49%) or 26°C (31%) as the highest temperature in Mexico City on August 14, 2026, reflecting short-term forecast consensus around 23–26°C amid the peak rainy season.** Mexico City’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters produces naturally cooler daytime maxima through reduced air density and enhanced radiative cooling, even during summer. Typical August highs average near 24°C, but variable afternoon convective showers—driven by daytime heating, humidity, and orographic lift—frequently cap peaks by increasing cloud cover, triggering evaporative cooling, and limiting solar insolation. Recent model runs from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate.com cluster near 24°C, with light steering winds and scattered thunderstorms expected to keep the daily maximum within the narrow 24–26°C window; any earlier or more intense rainfall would suppress readings toward 24°C, while clearer intervals could allow brief warming to 26°C. Traders weight these central outcomes because historical climatology and current ensemble guidance show low probability of extremes outside this range, with resolution depending on the precise timing and coverage of convection on this date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 14?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 14?
25°C 49%
26°C 29%
24°C 16%
27°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
16%
25°C
49%
26°C
29%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 49%
26°C 29%
24°C 16%
27°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
19°C or below
$206 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$229 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$773 Vol.
1%
22°C
$645 Vol.
2%
23°C
$484 Vol.
3%
24°C
$932 Vol.
16%
25°C
$1,613 Vol.
49%
26°C
$1,327 Vol.
29%
27°C
$346 Vol.
4%
28°C
$369 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$368 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds heavily favor 25°C (49%) or 26°C (31%) as the highest temperature in Mexico City on August 14, 2026, reflecting short-term forecast consensus around 23–26°C amid the peak rainy season.**
Mexico City’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters produces naturally cooler daytime maxima through reduced air density and enhanced radiative cooling, even during summer. Typical August highs average near 24°C, but variable afternoon convective showers—driven by daytime heating, humidity, and orographic lift—frequently cap peaks by increasing cloud cover, triggering evaporative cooling, and limiting solar insolation. Recent model runs from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate.com cluster near 24°C, with light steering winds and scattered thunderstorms expected to keep the daily maximum within the narrow 24–26°C window; any earlier or more intense rainfall would suppress readings toward 24°C, while clearer intervals could allow brief warming to 26°C. Traders weight these central outcomes because historical climatology and current ensemble guidance show low probability of extremes outside this range, with resolution depending on the precise timing and coverage of convection on this date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$7,293End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds heavily favor 25°C (49%) or 26°C (31%) as the highest temperature in Mexico City on August 14, 2026, reflecting short-term forecast consensus around 23–26°C amid the peak rainy season.**
Mexico City’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters produces naturally cooler daytime maxima through reduced air density and enhanced radiative cooling, even during summer. Typical August highs average near 24°C, but variable afternoon convective showers—driven by daytime heating, humidity, and orographic lift—frequently cap peaks by increasing cloud cover, triggering evaporative cooling, and limiting solar insolation. Recent model runs from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate.com cluster near 24°C, with light steering winds and scattered thunderstorms expected to keep the daily maximum within the narrow 24–26°C window; any earlier or more intense rainfall would suppress readings toward 24°C, while clearer intervals could allow brief warming to 26°C. Traders weight these central outcomes because historical climatology and current ensemble guidance show low probability of extremes outside this range, with resolution depending on the precise timing and coverage of convection on this date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,293End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor 25°C (49%) or 26°C (31%) as the highest temperature in Mexico City on August 14, 2026, reflecting short-term forecast consensus around 23–26°C amid the peak rainy season.** Mexico City’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters produces naturally cooler daytime maxima through reduced air density and enhanced radiative cooling, even during summer. Typical August highs average near 24°C, but variable afternoon convective showers—driven by daytime heating, humidity, and orographic lift—frequently cap peaks by increasing cloud cover, triggering evaporative cooling, and limiting solar insolation. Recent model runs from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate.com cluster near 24°C, with light steering winds and scattered thunderstorms expected to keep the daily maximum within the narrow 24–26°C window; any earlier or more intense rainfall would suppress readings toward 24°C, while clearer intervals could allow brief warming to 26°C. Traders weight these central outcomes because historical climatology and current ensemble guidance show low probability of extremes outside this range, with resolution depending on the precise timing and coverage of convection on this date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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