**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the highest temperature recorded in Mexico City on August 13, 2026, at the official Benito Juárez International Airport station.** This outcome aligns with numerical weather model guidance and climatological norms for the rainy season at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, where daytime maxima typically reach 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit peak solar heating. Recent model runs showed only minor divergences in timing of convection and insolation, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 26°C rather than lower values. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong convergence between forecast ensembles and post-event observational data, leaving little room for alternative thresholds. The primary realistic challenge would be a late revision to the official daily maximum by the reporting agency, though such corrections are infrequent once preliminary values are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 13?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 13?
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$30,856 Vol.
$30,856 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$30,856 Vol.
$30,856 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
19°C or below
$625 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$575 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$669 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$638 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,263 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,552 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$12,511 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,924 Vol.
100%
27°C
$2,708 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$706 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$687 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the highest temperature recorded in Mexico City on August 13, 2026, at the official Benito Juárez International Airport station.** This outcome aligns with numerical weather model guidance and climatological norms for the rainy season at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, where daytime maxima typically reach 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit peak solar heating. Recent model runs showed only minor divergences in timing of convection and insolation, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 26°C rather than lower values. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong convergence between forecast ensembles and post-event observational data, leaving little room for alternative thresholds. The primary realistic challenge would be a late revision to the official daily maximum by the reporting agency, though such corrections are infrequent once preliminary values are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$30,856End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the highest temperature recorded in Mexico City on August 13, 2026, at the official Benito Juárez International Airport station.** This outcome aligns with numerical weather model guidance and climatological norms for the rainy season at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, where daytime maxima typically reach 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit peak solar heating. Recent model runs showed only minor divergences in timing of convection and insolation, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 26°C rather than lower values. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong convergence between forecast ensembles and post-event observational data, leaving little room for alternative thresholds. The primary realistic challenge would be a late revision to the official daily maximum by the reporting agency, though such corrections are infrequent once preliminary values are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,856End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the highest temperature recorded in Mexico City on August 13, 2026, at the official Benito Juárez International Airport station.** This outcome aligns with numerical weather model guidance and climatological norms for the rainy season at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, where daytime maxima typically reach 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered showers that limit peak solar heating. Recent model runs showed only minor divergences in timing of convection and insolation, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 26°C rather than lower values. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong convergence between forecast ensembles and post-event observational data, leaving little room for alternative thresholds. The primary realistic challenge would be a late revision to the official daily maximum by the reporting agency, though such corrections are infrequent once preliminary values are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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