Recent forecast models from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a building ridge of high pressure supporting daytime highs of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15, driving the market’s leading 35°C outcome at 49.5% implied probability. With current readings already reaching the upper 20s°C and limited cloud cover or precipitation expected through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows minimal cooling overnight and modest daytime mixing that favors these thresholds over cooler or hotter extremes. Historical August maxima in the region average near 23–25°C, making this setup an outlier supported by the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus, though minor shifts in wind or timing could adjust final readings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?
35°C 35%
34°C 30%
36°C 13%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
11%
34°C
30%
35°C
35%
36°C
13%
37°C
5%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 35%
34°C 30%
36°C 13%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$12 Vol.
1%
32°C
$25 Vol.
3%
33°C
$11 Vol.
11%
34°C
$232 Vol.
30%
35°C
$921 Vol.
35%
36°C
$21 Vol.
13%
37°C
$11 Vol.
5%
38°C
$14 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a building ridge of high pressure supporting daytime highs of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15, driving the market’s leading 35°C outcome at 49.5% implied probability. With current readings already reaching the upper 20s°C and limited cloud cover or precipitation expected through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows minimal cooling overnight and modest daytime mixing that favors these thresholds over cooler or hotter extremes. Historical August maxima in the region average near 23–25°C, making this setup an outlier supported by the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus, though minor shifts in wind or timing could adjust final readings before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,281End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a building ridge of high pressure supporting daytime highs of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15, driving the market’s leading 35°C outcome at 49.5% implied probability. With current readings already reaching the upper 20s°C and limited cloud cover or precipitation expected through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows minimal cooling overnight and modest daytime mixing that favors these thresholds over cooler or hotter extremes. Historical August maxima in the region average near 23–25°C, making this setup an outlier supported by the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus, though minor shifts in wind or timing could adjust final readings before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,281End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a building ridge of high pressure supporting daytime highs of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15, driving the market’s leading 35°C outcome at 49.5% implied probability. With current readings already reaching the upper 20s°C and limited cloud cover or precipitation expected through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows minimal cooling overnight and modest daytime mixing that favors these thresholds over cooler or hotter extremes. Historical August maxima in the region average near 23–25°C, making this setup an outlier supported by the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus, though minor shifts in wind or timing could adjust final readings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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