Forecast models from regional meteorological agencies and Brazilian monitoring services point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C in São Paulo on August 14, consistent with typical Southern Hemisphere winter subsidence, dry air masses, and moderate insolation under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus, reflected in the market’s leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C, incorporates climatological baselines around 23–25°C, minor urban heat-island contributions at official stations, and limited model spread on peak values. Traders weigh these factors against small uncertainties in exact observational timing and localized variability, with any late-day warming or measurement revisions able to shift resolution thresholds. Updated short-range guidance remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 14?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 14?
25°C 39%
26°C 24%
24°C 20%
23°C 5.5%
NEW
$13,356 Vol.
NEW
$13,356 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
20%
25°C
39%
26°C
24%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 39%
26°C 24%
24°C 20%
23°C 5.5%
NEW
$13,356 Vol.
NEW
$13,356 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
21°C or below
$359 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$409 Vol.
1%
23°C
$352 Vol.
6%
24°C
$4,796 Vol.
20%
25°C
$1,077 Vol.
39%
26°C
$1,644 Vol.
24%
27°C
$1,911 Vol.
5%
28°C
$993 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,210 Vol.
1%
30°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$373 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from regional meteorological agencies and Brazilian monitoring services point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C in São Paulo on August 14, consistent with typical Southern Hemisphere winter subsidence, dry air masses, and moderate insolation under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus, reflected in the market’s leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C, incorporates climatological baselines around 23–25°C, minor urban heat-island contributions at official stations, and limited model spread on peak values. Traders weigh these factors against small uncertainties in exact observational timing and localized variability, with any late-day warming or measurement revisions able to shift resolution thresholds. Updated short-range guidance remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$13,356End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from regional meteorological agencies and Brazilian monitoring services point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C in São Paulo on August 14, consistent with typical Southern Hemisphere winter subsidence, dry air masses, and moderate insolation under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus, reflected in the market’s leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C, incorporates climatological baselines around 23–25°C, minor urban heat-island contributions at official stations, and limited model spread on peak values. Traders weigh these factors against small uncertainties in exact observational timing and localized variability, with any late-day warming or measurement revisions able to shift resolution thresholds. Updated short-range guidance remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,356End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from regional meteorological agencies and Brazilian monitoring services point to a daytime maximum near 25–26°C in São Paulo on August 14, consistent with typical Southern Hemisphere winter subsidence, dry air masses, and moderate insolation under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus, reflected in the market’s leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C, incorporates climatological baselines around 23–25°C, minor urban heat-island contributions at official stations, and limited model spread on peak values. Traders weigh these factors against small uncertainties in exact observational timing and localized variability, with any late-day warming or measurement revisions able to shift resolution thresholds. Updated short-range guidance remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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