Traders assign near-certainty to a 30°C maximum in São Paulo on August 13 because official observations from Brazilian meteorological stations, including timeanddate records, logged a daytime peak of 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. This aligns with ensemble model guidance from AccuWeather and regional forecasts projecting 28–31°C amid warmer-than-average winter advection, exceeding the typical August climatology of 23–25°C. The market’s 100% implied probability on 30°C reflects convergence between real-time surface data and the resolution criteria tied to official high readings. Minor adjustments could arise only from final quality-controlled station verification or differences between urban heat-island effects and rural reference sites used for the official record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 13?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 13?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$30,458 Vol.
$30,458 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$30,458 Vol.
$30,458 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
24°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$347 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$775 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$9,400 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$8,201 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,408 Vol.
100%
31°C
$3,416 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,658 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$552 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$1,240 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 30°C maximum in São Paulo on August 13 because official observations from Brazilian meteorological stations, including timeanddate records, logged a daytime peak of 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. This aligns with ensemble model guidance from AccuWeather and regional forecasts projecting 28–31°C amid warmer-than-average winter advection, exceeding the typical August climatology of 23–25°C. The market’s 100% implied probability on 30°C reflects convergence between real-time surface data and the resolution criteria tied to official high readings. Minor adjustments could arise only from final quality-controlled station verification or differences between urban heat-island effects and rural reference sites used for the official record.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volume
$30,458End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 30°C maximum in São Paulo on August 13 because official observations from Brazilian meteorological stations, including timeanddate records, logged a daytime peak of 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. This aligns with ensemble model guidance from AccuWeather and regional forecasts projecting 28–31°C amid warmer-than-average winter advection, exceeding the typical August climatology of 23–25°C. The market’s 100% implied probability on 30°C reflects convergence between real-time surface data and the resolution criteria tied to official high readings. Minor adjustments could arise only from final quality-controlled station verification or differences between urban heat-island effects and rural reference sites used for the official record.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,458End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign near-certainty to a 30°C maximum in São Paulo on August 13 because official observations from Brazilian meteorological stations, including timeanddate records, logged a daytime peak of 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. This aligns with ensemble model guidance from AccuWeather and regional forecasts projecting 28–31°C amid warmer-than-average winter advection, exceeding the typical August climatology of 23–25°C. The market’s 100% implied probability on 30°C reflects convergence between real-time surface data and the resolution criteria tied to official high readings. Minor adjustments could arise only from final quality-controlled station verification or differences between urban heat-island effects and rural reference sites used for the official record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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