Official forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC project a high of 35°C in Milan on August 12 under sunny skies and light winds, driving the 58.5% market-implied probability for that threshold. Stable high-pressure subsidence over the Po Valley promotes clear conditions and efficient daytime heating, with urban heat island effects in the city center likely amplifying the peak. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or frontal activity to moderate temperatures, though slight variations in timing or local microclimates could shift the exact maximum between 34°C and 36°C. Traders weigh these near-term observational updates against historical August averages around 28–31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 12?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 12?
35°C 59%
34°C 24%
36°C 17%
33°C 4%
NEW
$20,576 Vol.
NEW
$20,576 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
4%
34°C
24%
35°C
59%
36°C
17%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 59%
34°C 24%
36°C 17%
33°C 4%
NEW
$20,576 Vol.
NEW
$20,576 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$370 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$437 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$925 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$3,105 Vol.
4%
34°C
$3,057 Vol.
24%
35°C
$4,452 Vol.
59%
36°C
$3,093 Vol.
17%
37°C
$1,834 Vol.
2%
38°C
$1,294 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$948 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC project a high of 35°C in Milan on August 12 under sunny skies and light winds, driving the 58.5% market-implied probability for that threshold. Stable high-pressure subsidence over the Po Valley promotes clear conditions and efficient daytime heating, with urban heat island effects in the city center likely amplifying the peak. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or frontal activity to moderate temperatures, though slight variations in timing or local microclimates could shift the exact maximum between 34°C and 36°C. Traders weigh these near-term observational updates against historical August averages around 28–31°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$20,576End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC project a high of 35°C in Milan on August 12 under sunny skies and light winds, driving the 58.5% market-implied probability for that threshold. Stable high-pressure subsidence over the Po Valley promotes clear conditions and efficient daytime heating, with urban heat island effects in the city center likely amplifying the peak. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or frontal activity to moderate temperatures, though slight variations in timing or local microclimates could shift the exact maximum between 34°C and 36°C. Traders weigh these near-term observational updates against historical August averages around 28–31°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,576End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC project a high of 35°C in Milan on August 12 under sunny skies and light winds, driving the 58.5% market-implied probability for that threshold. Stable high-pressure subsidence over the Po Valley promotes clear conditions and efficient daytime heating, with urban heat island effects in the city center likely amplifying the peak. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or frontal activity to moderate temperatures, though slight variations in timing or local microclimates could shift the exact maximum between 34°C and 36°C. Traders weigh these near-term observational updates against historical August averages around 28–31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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