Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate overnight lows in Paris near 17–18°C on August 9, driven by hot daytime conditions (highs 30–33°C) under transitioning high pressure with limited cloud cover overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after sunset, tempered by urban heat retention and dew points around 14–16°C that curb further drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C (over 80% combined) reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual moisture from earlier Atlantic flow, with 17°C favored if skies clear fully and 19°C more likely under increased low-level cloud. Historical August minima average 15–16°C, so recent warming trends support the elevated consensus. Updated model runs tonight will refine exact thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 9?
18°C 36%
17°C 29%
19°C 22%
16°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
29%
18°C
36%
19°C
22%
20°C
7%
21°C
5%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 36%
17°C 29%
19°C 22%
16°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
14°C or below
$69 Vol.
1%
15°C
$137 Vol.
2%
16°C
$329 Vol.
8%
17°C
$177 Vol.
29%
18°C
$345 Vol.
36%
19°C
$241 Vol.
22%
20°C
$83 Vol.
7%
21°C
$127 Vol.
5%
22°C
$466 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$592 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$81 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate overnight lows in Paris near 17–18°C on August 9, driven by hot daytime conditions (highs 30–33°C) under transitioning high pressure with limited cloud cover overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after sunset, tempered by urban heat retention and dew points around 14–16°C that curb further drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C (over 80% combined) reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual moisture from earlier Atlantic flow, with 17°C favored if skies clear fully and 19°C more likely under increased low-level cloud. Historical August minima average 15–16°C, so recent warming trends support the elevated consensus. Updated model runs tonight will refine exact thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,646End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate overnight lows in Paris near 17–18°C on August 9, driven by hot daytime conditions (highs 30–33°C) under transitioning high pressure with limited cloud cover overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after sunset, tempered by urban heat retention and dew points around 14–16°C that curb further drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C (over 80% combined) reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual moisture from earlier Atlantic flow, with 17°C favored if skies clear fully and 19°C more likely under increased low-level cloud. Historical August minima average 15–16°C, so recent warming trends support the elevated consensus. Updated model runs tonight will refine exact thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,646End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate overnight lows in Paris near 17–18°C on August 9, driven by hot daytime conditions (highs 30–33°C) under transitioning high pressure with limited cloud cover overnight. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after sunset, tempered by urban heat retention and dew points around 14–16°C that curb further drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C (over 80% combined) reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual moisture from earlier Atlantic flow, with 17°C favored if skies clear fully and 19°C more likely under increased low-level cloud. Historical August minima average 15–16°C, so recent warming trends support the elevated consensus. Updated model runs tonight will refine exact thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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