**Trader consensus on 28°C as the highest temperature in Manila today reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon, which is currently suppressing peak daytime heating across Luzon.** PAGASA forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover and scattered rain, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximums near or slightly below the seasonal 30–31°C average. High humidity and persistent moisture advection from the monsoon trough further moderate surface temperatures through enhanced latent heat flux and reduced diurnal range. With the market-implied probability exceeding 95%, this positioning aligns with verified observational trends and model consensus from regional meteorological agencies. A realistic challenge would require rapid monsoon weakening or unexpected clear-sky development allowing greater radiative heating before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 8?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 8?
28°C 96%
29°C 4%
31°C <1%
30°C <1%
$20,048 Vol.
$20,048 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
96%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 96%
29°C 4%
31°C <1%
30°C <1%
$20,048 Vol.
$20,048 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
24°C or below
$525 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$546 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,077 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,809 Vol.
96%
29°C
$3,684 Vol.
4%
30°C
$2,659 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,185 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$967 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$989 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$781 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on 28°C as the highest temperature in Manila today reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon, which is currently suppressing peak daytime heating across Luzon.** PAGASA forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover and scattered rain, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximums near or slightly below the seasonal 30–31°C average. High humidity and persistent moisture advection from the monsoon trough further moderate surface temperatures through enhanced latent heat flux and reduced diurnal range. With the market-implied probability exceeding 95%, this positioning aligns with verified observational trends and model consensus from regional meteorological agencies. A realistic challenge would require rapid monsoon weakening or unexpected clear-sky development allowing greater radiative heating before sunset.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$20,048End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on 28°C as the highest temperature in Manila today reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon, which is currently suppressing peak daytime heating across Luzon.** PAGASA forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover and scattered rain, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximums near or slightly below the seasonal 30–31°C average. High humidity and persistent moisture advection from the monsoon trough further moderate surface temperatures through enhanced latent heat flux and reduced diurnal range. With the market-implied probability exceeding 95%, this positioning aligns with verified observational trends and model consensus from regional meteorological agencies. A realistic challenge would require rapid monsoon weakening or unexpected clear-sky development allowing greater radiative heating before sunset.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,048End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on 28°C as the highest temperature in Manila today reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon, which is currently suppressing peak daytime heating across Luzon.** PAGASA forecasts indicate widespread cloud cover and scattered rain, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximums near or slightly below the seasonal 30–31°C average. High humidity and persistent moisture advection from the monsoon trough further moderate surface temperatures through enhanced latent heat flux and reduced diurnal range. With the market-implied probability exceeding 95%, this positioning aligns with verified observational trends and model consensus from regional meteorological agencies. A realistic challenge would require rapid monsoon weakening or unexpected clear-sky development allowing greater radiative heating before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions