Latest AEMET guidance and supporting model consensus indicate clear skies and light winds favoring a maximum near 37°C in Madrid on August 9, positioning that outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability. Ensemble runs show limited spread, with most solutions clustering between 36–38°C amid a warmer-than-normal summer pattern driven by persistent high pressure. Historical August maxima average 32–34°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the narrow forecast window and potential for minor model shifts or local effects that could nudge the official reading to 38°C (24.5%) before observations finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 9?
37°C 57%
38°C 26%
36°C 13%
35°C 4%
NEW
$21,685 Vol.
NEW
$21,685 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
4%
36°C
13%
37°C
57%
38°C
26%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 57%
38°C 26%
36°C 13%
35°C 4%
NEW
$21,685 Vol.
NEW
$21,685 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
32°C or below
$358 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$791 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$5,371 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$2,185 Vol.
4%
36°C
$3,931 Vol.
13%
37°C
$3,262 Vol.
57%
38°C
$2,797 Vol.
26%
39°C
$1,131 Vol.
1%
40°C
$799 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$693 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET guidance and supporting model consensus indicate clear skies and light winds favoring a maximum near 37°C in Madrid on August 9, positioning that outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability. Ensemble runs show limited spread, with most solutions clustering between 36–38°C amid a warmer-than-normal summer pattern driven by persistent high pressure. Historical August maxima average 32–34°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the narrow forecast window and potential for minor model shifts or local effects that could nudge the official reading to 38°C (24.5%) before observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$21,685End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET guidance and supporting model consensus indicate clear skies and light winds favoring a maximum near 37°C in Madrid on August 9, positioning that outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability. Ensemble runs show limited spread, with most solutions clustering between 36–38°C amid a warmer-than-normal summer pattern driven by persistent high pressure. Historical August maxima average 32–34°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the narrow forecast window and potential for minor model shifts or local effects that could nudge the official reading to 38°C (24.5%) before observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,685End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance and supporting model consensus indicate clear skies and light winds favoring a maximum near 37°C in Madrid on August 9, positioning that outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability. Ensemble runs show limited spread, with most solutions clustering between 36–38°C amid a warmer-than-normal summer pattern driven by persistent high pressure. Historical August maxima average 32–34°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the narrow forecast window and potential for minor model shifts or local effects that could nudge the official reading to 38°C (24.5%) before observations finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions