Current forecasts from models and agencies such as AEMET point to a high-pressure ridge sustaining clear skies and light winds over central Spain, favoring peak daytime temperatures of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 8. This aligns with climatological August averages near 34°C while reflecting typical late-summer amplification from subsidence and surface heating. Uncertainty between the two leading outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing in ensemble runs. Recent observations show no major cool-air intrusion or cloud cover development that would shift readings lower, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on these thresholds ahead of official daily maximum verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 8?
38°C 62%
39°C 36%
37°C 3%
40°C 1.0%
NEW
$43,456 Vol.
NEW
$43,456 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
3%
38°C
62%
39°C
36%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 62%
39°C 36%
37°C 3%
40°C 1.0%
NEW
$43,456 Vol.
NEW
$43,456 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
34°C or below
$808 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$2,010 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$2,616 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$10,025 Vol.
3%
38°C
$10,192 Vol.
62%
39°C
$10,695 Vol.
36%
40°C
$4,420 Vol.
1%
41°C
$1,069 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$650 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$427 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$544 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models and agencies such as AEMET point to a high-pressure ridge sustaining clear skies and light winds over central Spain, favoring peak daytime temperatures of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 8. This aligns with climatological August averages near 34°C while reflecting typical late-summer amplification from subsidence and surface heating. Uncertainty between the two leading outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing in ensemble runs. Recent observations show no major cool-air intrusion or cloud cover development that would shift readings lower, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on these thresholds ahead of official daily maximum verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$43,456End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models and agencies such as AEMET point to a high-pressure ridge sustaining clear skies and light winds over central Spain, favoring peak daytime temperatures of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 8. This aligns with climatological August averages near 34°C while reflecting typical late-summer amplification from subsidence and surface heating. Uncertainty between the two leading outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing in ensemble runs. Recent observations show no major cool-air intrusion or cloud cover development that would shift readings lower, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on these thresholds ahead of official daily maximum verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,456End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from models and agencies such as AEMET point to a high-pressure ridge sustaining clear skies and light winds over central Spain, favoring peak daytime temperatures of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 8. This aligns with climatological August averages near 34°C while reflecting typical late-summer amplification from subsidence and surface heating. Uncertainty between the two leading outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing in ensemble runs. Recent observations show no major cool-air intrusion or cloud cover development that would shift readings lower, keeping trader-implied probabilities concentrated on these thresholds ahead of official daily maximum verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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