A strong cold front and associated upper-air trough, forecast by the South African Weather Service to affect the Western Cape over the August 8–10 weekend, represent the main driver pushing market-implied odds toward a 13–15 °C maximum in Cape Town on the 9th. This system introduces cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating, consistent with winter patterns where the Benguela Current and orographic lift from Table Mountain further suppress highs below the 17 °C August average. Model consensus and recent SAWS guidance show limited warming potential under these conditions, while historical analogs of similar fronts indicate frequent outcomes in the low-to-mid teens Celsius. Updated forecast runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key variables that could adjust probabilities before resolution based on official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on August 9?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on August 9?
14°C 52%
13°C 23%
15°C 19%
12°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
6%
13°C
23%
14°C
52%
15°C
19%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 52%
13°C 23%
15°C 19%
12°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
8°C or below
$304 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$304 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$459 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$482 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,090 Vol.
6%
13°C
$681 Vol.
23%
14°C
$1,529 Vol.
52%
15°C
$1,285 Vol.
19%
16°C
$797 Vol.
2%
17°C
$396 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$312 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong cold front and associated upper-air trough, forecast by the South African Weather Service to affect the Western Cape over the August 8–10 weekend, represent the main driver pushing market-implied odds toward a 13–15 °C maximum in Cape Town on the 9th. This system introduces cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating, consistent with winter patterns where the Benguela Current and orographic lift from Table Mountain further suppress highs below the 17 °C August average. Model consensus and recent SAWS guidance show limited warming potential under these conditions, while historical analogs of similar fronts indicate frequent outcomes in the low-to-mid teens Celsius. Updated forecast runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key variables that could adjust probabilities before resolution based on official station readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$7,638End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong cold front and associated upper-air trough, forecast by the South African Weather Service to affect the Western Cape over the August 8–10 weekend, represent the main driver pushing market-implied odds toward a 13–15 °C maximum in Cape Town on the 9th. This system introduces cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating, consistent with winter patterns where the Benguela Current and orographic lift from Table Mountain further suppress highs below the 17 °C August average. Model consensus and recent SAWS guidance show limited warming potential under these conditions, while historical analogs of similar fronts indicate frequent outcomes in the low-to-mid teens Celsius. Updated forecast runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key variables that could adjust probabilities before resolution based on official station readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,638End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong cold front and associated upper-air trough, forecast by the South African Weather Service to affect the Western Cape over the August 8–10 weekend, represent the main driver pushing market-implied odds toward a 13–15 °C maximum in Cape Town on the 9th. This system introduces cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating, consistent with winter patterns where the Benguela Current and orographic lift from Table Mountain further suppress highs below the 17 °C August average. Model consensus and recent SAWS guidance show limited warming potential under these conditions, while historical analogs of similar fronts indicate frequent outcomes in the low-to-mid teens Celsius. Updated forecast runs and any shifts in frontal timing remain the key variables that could adjust probabilities before resolution based on official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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