Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including those aligned with KNMI guidance, indicate a high of 28–30°C in Amsterdam on August 9 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions support the market’s emphasis on 29°C as the leading outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 30°C and 28°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread around this range, with daytime heating peaking midday to early afternoon before any evening cooling. Historical August maxima near 22–25°C provide context, yet the current warm anomaly elevates the chance of breaching 28°C. Traders will monitor the next official KNMI update and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in the 24-hour window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 9?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 9?
29°C 44%
30°C 28%
28°C 20%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
20%
29°C
44%
30°C
28%
31°C
7%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 44%
30°C 28%
28°C 20%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
24°C or below
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$90 Vol.
1%
26°C
$468 Vol.
2%
27°C
$832 Vol.
6%
28°C
$616 Vol.
20%
29°C
$918 Vol.
44%
30°C
$599 Vol.
28%
31°C
$630 Vol.
7%
32°C
$255 Vol.
1%
33°C
$284 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$448 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including those aligned with KNMI guidance, indicate a high of 28–30°C in Amsterdam on August 9 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions support the market’s emphasis on 29°C as the leading outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 30°C and 28°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread around this range, with daytime heating peaking midday to early afternoon before any evening cooling. Historical August maxima near 22–25°C provide context, yet the current warm anomaly elevates the chance of breaching 28°C. Traders will monitor the next official KNMI update and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in the 24-hour window before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,874End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including those aligned with KNMI guidance, indicate a high of 28–30°C in Amsterdam on August 9 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions support the market’s emphasis on 29°C as the leading outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 30°C and 28°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread around this range, with daytime heating peaking midday to early afternoon before any evening cooling. Historical August maxima near 22–25°C provide context, yet the current warm anomaly elevates the chance of breaching 28°C. Traders will monitor the next official KNMI update and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in the 24-hour window before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,874End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European models, including those aligned with KNMI guidance, indicate a high of 28–30°C in Amsterdam on August 9 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions support the market’s emphasis on 29°C as the leading outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 30°C and 28°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread around this range, with daytime heating peaking midday to early afternoon before any evening cooling. Historical August maxima near 22–25°C provide context, yet the current warm anomaly elevates the chance of breaching 28°C. Traders will monitor the next official KNMI update and high-resolution model runs for any shifts in the 24-hour window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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