Recent forecasts from sources like the Met Office and European models indicate a continuation of above-average warmth across southern England, driven by high pressure and southerly flow that has elevated overnight minimum temperatures. With London experiencing daytime highs near 28–29°C and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, the expected minimum on August 9 clusters around 16–18°C at central stations. This aligns with observed trends of unusually mild nights (1–2°C above the long-term August average of ~14°C) throughout early August 2026. Trader consensus on 16–18°C outcomes reflects model agreement on these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud cover and wind that could allow a dip toward 15°C or hold values near 17°C. New model runs and official guidance updates expected overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 9?
Lowest temperature in London on August 9?
17°C 40%
16°C 29%
18°C 24%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
29%
17°C
40%
18°C
24%
19°C
7%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 40%
16°C 29%
18°C 24%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
12°C or below
$55 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$122 Vol.
3%
16°C
$2,003 Vol.
29%
17°C
$1,785 Vol.
40%
18°C
$366 Vol.
24%
19°C
$134 Vol.
7%
20°C
$394 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$50 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the Met Office and European models indicate a continuation of above-average warmth across southern England, driven by high pressure and southerly flow that has elevated overnight minimum temperatures. With London experiencing daytime highs near 28–29°C and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, the expected minimum on August 9 clusters around 16–18°C at central stations. This aligns with observed trends of unusually mild nights (1–2°C above the long-term August average of ~14°C) throughout early August 2026. Trader consensus on 16–18°C outcomes reflects model agreement on these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud cover and wind that could allow a dip toward 15°C or hold values near 17°C. New model runs and official guidance updates expected overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,052End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the Met Office and European models indicate a continuation of above-average warmth across southern England, driven by high pressure and southerly flow that has elevated overnight minimum temperatures. With London experiencing daytime highs near 28–29°C and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, the expected minimum on August 9 clusters around 16–18°C at central stations. This aligns with observed trends of unusually mild nights (1–2°C above the long-term August average of ~14°C) throughout early August 2026. Trader consensus on 16–18°C outcomes reflects model agreement on these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud cover and wind that could allow a dip toward 15°C or hold values near 17°C. New model runs and official guidance updates expected overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,052End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like the Met Office and European models indicate a continuation of above-average warmth across southern England, driven by high pressure and southerly flow that has elevated overnight minimum temperatures. With London experiencing daytime highs near 28–29°C and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, the expected minimum on August 9 clusters around 16–18°C at central stations. This aligns with observed trends of unusually mild nights (1–2°C above the long-term August average of ~14°C) throughout early August 2026. Trader consensus on 16–18°C outcomes reflects model agreement on these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud cover and wind that could allow a dip toward 15°C or hold values near 17°C. New model runs and official guidance updates expected overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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