Recent forecasts from the Met Office and other models indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for London on August 8, consistent with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August climatology, with average overnight lows near 14–15°C and a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing significant cooling. Above-average minimum temperatures through early summer have further supported mild conditions, reducing the chance of sharp nocturnal drops. While model consensus remains strong, an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling event or a sharper-than-forecast frontal passage could push the low below 15°C, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 8?
Lowest temperature in London on August 8?
15°C 98%
14°C 2.3%
13°C 1.0%
10°C or below <1%
$16,278 Vol.
$16,278 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
98%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 98%
14°C 2.3%
13°C 1.0%
10°C or below <1%
$16,278 Vol.
$16,278 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
10°C or below
$262 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$546 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$547 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,718 Vol.
1%
14°C
$2,282 Vol.
2%
15°C
$5,734 Vol.
98%
16°C
$2,898 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,139 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$255 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Met Office and other models indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for London on August 8, consistent with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August climatology, with average overnight lows near 14–15°C and a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing significant cooling. Above-average minimum temperatures through early summer have further supported mild conditions, reducing the chance of sharp nocturnal drops. While model consensus remains strong, an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling event or a sharper-than-forecast frontal passage could push the low below 15°C, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,278End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Met Office and other models indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for London on August 8, consistent with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August climatology, with average overnight lows near 14–15°C and a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing significant cooling. Above-average minimum temperatures through early summer have further supported mild conditions, reducing the chance of sharp nocturnal drops. While model consensus remains strong, an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling event or a sharper-than-forecast frontal passage could push the low below 15°C, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,278End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Met Office and other models indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C for London on August 8, consistent with the market's 98.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical mid-August climatology, with average overnight lows near 14–15°C and a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing significant cooling. Above-average minimum temperatures through early summer have further supported mild conditions, reducing the chance of sharp nocturnal drops. While model consensus remains strong, an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling event or a sharper-than-forecast frontal passage could push the low below 15°C, though current atmospheric stability makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions