Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on August 9, 2026, with scattered clouds and light winds limiting further warming. These conditions align with the market's heavy weighting toward 25°C (47%) and 26°C (30%), reflecting consensus around typical late-summer values slightly above the long-term August average of 23–24°C. Recent observational trends show no strong heat advection or frontal cooling, keeping 27°C or higher at low probability (under 4%) while supporting the modest odds for 24°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 9?
25°C 47%
26°C 29%
24°C 18%
27°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
18%
25°C
47%
26°C
29%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 47%
26°C 29%
24°C 18%
27°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
$435 Vol.
1%
22°C
$752 Vol.
1%
23°C
$243 Vol.
3%
24°C
$972 Vol.
18%
25°C
$918 Vol.
47%
26°C
$509 Vol.
29%
27°C
$367 Vol.
4%
28°C
$470 Vol.
2%
29°C
$175 Vol.
1%
30°C
$182 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$242 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on August 9, 2026, with scattered clouds and light winds limiting further warming. These conditions align with the market's heavy weighting toward 25°C (47%) and 26°C (30%), reflecting consensus around typical late-summer values slightly above the long-term August average of 23–24°C. Recent observational trends show no strong heat advection or frontal cooling, keeping 27°C or higher at low probability (under 4%) while supporting the modest odds for 24°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,264End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on August 9, 2026, with scattered clouds and light winds limiting further warming. These conditions align with the market's heavy weighting toward 25°C (47%) and 26°C (30%), reflecting consensus around typical late-summer values slightly above the long-term August average of 23–24°C. Recent observational trends show no strong heat advection or frontal cooling, keeping 27°C or higher at low probability (under 4%) while supporting the modest odds for 24°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,264End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate Warsaw highs of 24–26°C on August 9, 2026, with scattered clouds and light winds limiting further warming. These conditions align with the market's heavy weighting toward 25°C (47%) and 26°C (30%), reflecting consensus around typical late-summer values slightly above the long-term August average of 23–24°C. Recent observational trends show no strong heat advection or frontal cooling, keeping 27°C or higher at low probability (under 4%) while supporting the modest odds for 24°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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