Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models, including those aligned with Poland’s IMGW-PIB, indicate a daytime maximum near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on August 8 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly flow. This aligns with August climatology, where the long-term average high is approximately 23 °C, and current conditions lack the strong high-pressure ridging or southerly advection that would support warmer outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, keeping probabilities concentrated on the 21–23 °C range while assigning low odds to 24 °C or higher. Market-implied odds therefore track the consensus of short-range numerical weather prediction, with resolution depending on official maximum readings from Warsaw stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 8?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 8?
22°C 41%
23°C 29%
21°C 19%
24°C 8%
$15,213 Vol.
$15,213 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
19%
22°C
41%
23°C
29%
24°C
8%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
22°C 41%
23°C 29%
21°C 19%
24°C 8%
$15,213 Vol.
$15,213 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
20°C or below
$1,256 Vol.
3%
21°C
$2,370 Vol.
19%
22°C
$3,878 Vol.
41%
23°C
$1,773 Vol.
29%
24°C
$2,175 Vol.
8%
25°C
$1,171 Vol.
3%
26°C
$1,285 Vol.
1%
27°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$471 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$165 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$541 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models, including those aligned with Poland’s IMGW-PIB, indicate a daytime maximum near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on August 8 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly flow. This aligns with August climatology, where the long-term average high is approximately 23 °C, and current conditions lack the strong high-pressure ridging or southerly advection that would support warmer outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, keeping probabilities concentrated on the 21–23 °C range while assigning low odds to 24 °C or higher. Market-implied odds therefore track the consensus of short-range numerical weather prediction, with resolution depending on official maximum readings from Warsaw stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$15,213End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models, including those aligned with Poland’s IMGW-PIB, indicate a daytime maximum near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on August 8 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly flow. This aligns with August climatology, where the long-term average high is approximately 23 °C, and current conditions lack the strong high-pressure ridging or southerly advection that would support warmer outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, keeping probabilities concentrated on the 21–23 °C range while assigning low odds to 24 °C or higher. Market-implied odds therefore track the consensus of short-range numerical weather prediction, with resolution depending on official maximum readings from Warsaw stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,213End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models, including those aligned with Poland’s IMGW-PIB, indicate a daytime maximum near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on August 8 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly flow. This aligns with August climatology, where the long-term average high is approximately 23 °C, and current conditions lack the strong high-pressure ridging or southerly advection that would support warmer outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, keeping probabilities concentrated on the 21–23 °C range while assigning low odds to 24 °C or higher. Market-implied odds therefore track the consensus of short-range numerical weather prediction, with resolution depending on official maximum readings from Warsaw stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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