Miami’s mid-August climatology, shaped by the Gulf Stream, persistent high humidity, and frequent afternoon sea breezes, positions 78–79°F as the dominant range for the daily minimum, matching long-term averages near 78°F with most observations falling between 74°F and 82°F. The market’s heavy weighting on this bin reflects the absence of unusual cooling mechanisms such as strong cold fronts or prolonged cloud cover that could push lows into the mid-70s or lower, while the low probabilities on extremes underscore the rarity of significant departures during peak summer. Official records and model guidance show minimal day-to-day variability in overnight temperatures under these conditions, reinforcing trader consensus around the historical baseline as resolution nears.