Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 13 points to overnight lows in the mid-70s across New York City, supporting the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Persistent warmth stems from elevated dew points near 70°F, limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that retains heat in Manhattan and surrounding boroughs. Weak steering winds and the absence of a strong cold front have prevented sharper drops, consistent with the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures. Traders weigh model consensus on these thermodynamic variables against any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum into the lower 70s or push it slightly higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 13?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 13?
76-77°F 49%
74-75°F 49%
68-69°F 14%
72-73°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
49%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 49%
74-75°F 49%
68-69°F 14%
72-73°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
61°F or below
$276 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$276 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$286 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$720 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$786 Vol.
14%
70-71°F
$1,044 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$1,587 Vol.
4%
74-75°F
$2,568 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$946 Vol.
49%
78-79°F
$615 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 13 points to overnight lows in the mid-70s across New York City, supporting the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Persistent warmth stems from elevated dew points near 70°F, limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that retains heat in Manhattan and surrounding boroughs. Weak steering winds and the absence of a strong cold front have prevented sharper drops, consistent with the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures. Traders weigh model consensus on these thermodynamic variables against any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum into the lower 70s or push it slightly higher.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$9,402End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 13 points to overnight lows in the mid-70s across New York City, supporting the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Persistent warmth stems from elevated dew points near 70°F, limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that retains heat in Manhattan and surrounding boroughs. Weak steering winds and the absence of a strong cold front have prevented sharper drops, consistent with the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures. Traders weigh model consensus on these thermodynamic variables against any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum into the lower 70s or push it slightly higher.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,402End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for August 13 points to overnight lows in the mid-70s across New York City, supporting the market's tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Persistent warmth stems from elevated dew points near 70°F, limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that retains heat in Manhattan and surrounding boroughs. Weak steering winds and the absence of a strong cold front have prevented sharper drops, consistent with the broader August pattern of above-average temperatures. Traders weigh model consensus on these thermodynamic variables against any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum into the lower 70s or push it slightly higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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