Forecast models and Mexico City's climatological baseline position 24–25°C as the leading outcomes for the August 10 daily high, with the market assigning combined implied probability above 70%. At 2,240 m elevation, afternoon convective clouds and showers typical of the peak rainy season limit insolation and cap temperatures near the long-term August mean of 24°C. Recent AccuWeather guidance shows daily highs ranging 22.8–25.5°C through the month with no anomalous warming signals, while ensemble guidance maintains similar values for the immediate forecast window. Minor upside risk to 26°C exists if drier conditions develop, but current moisture patterns favor the central cluster around 24°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 10?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 10?
24°C 54%
25°C 30%
23°C 13%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
8%
22°C
5%
23°C
13%
24°C
54%
25°C
30%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 54%
25°C 30%
23°C 13%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
18°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
19°C
$12 Vol.
1%
20°C
$5 Vol.
1%
21°C
$54 Vol.
8%
22°C
$5 Vol.
5%
23°C
$5 Vol.
13%
24°C
$97 Vol.
54%
25°C
$19 Vol.
30%
26°C
$19 Vol.
6%
27°C
$17 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and Mexico City's climatological baseline position 24–25°C as the leading outcomes for the August 10 daily high, with the market assigning combined implied probability above 70%. At 2,240 m elevation, afternoon convective clouds and showers typical of the peak rainy season limit insolation and cap temperatures near the long-term August mean of 24°C. Recent AccuWeather guidance shows daily highs ranging 22.8–25.5°C through the month with no anomalous warming signals, while ensemble guidance maintains similar values for the immediate forecast window. Minor upside risk to 26°C exists if drier conditions develop, but current moisture patterns favor the central cluster around 24°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$248End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and Mexico City's climatological baseline position 24–25°C as the leading outcomes for the August 10 daily high, with the market assigning combined implied probability above 70%. At 2,240 m elevation, afternoon convective clouds and showers typical of the peak rainy season limit insolation and cap temperatures near the long-term August mean of 24°C. Recent AccuWeather guidance shows daily highs ranging 22.8–25.5°C through the month with no anomalous warming signals, while ensemble guidance maintains similar values for the immediate forecast window. Minor upside risk to 26°C exists if drier conditions develop, but current moisture patterns favor the central cluster around 24°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$248End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models and Mexico City's climatological baseline position 24–25°C as the leading outcomes for the August 10 daily high, with the market assigning combined implied probability above 70%. At 2,240 m elevation, afternoon convective clouds and showers typical of the peak rainy season limit insolation and cap temperatures near the long-term August mean of 24°C. Recent AccuWeather guidance shows daily highs ranging 22.8–25.5°C through the month with no anomalous warming signals, while ensemble guidance maintains similar values for the immediate forecast window. Minor upside risk to 26°C exists if drier conditions develop, but current moisture patterns favor the central cluster around 24°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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