Recent NOAA and National Weather Service model runs place Houston's August 10 high near the low 90s, driving the market's tight clustering around 88–93°F outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the afternoon sea breeze from the Gulf, which can cap temperatures through increased mixing and moisture, versus stronger high-pressure subsidence that favors clearer skies and greater urban heat-island warming in the metro area. Forecast ensembles show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and wind shifts, with any late-day thunderstorm development likely trimming the peak by 1–3°F. Traders weigh these variables against climatological August baselines near 94°F, creating balanced implied odds that reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 10?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 10?
90-91°F 36%
88-89°F 35%
92-93°F 19%
86-87°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
35%
90-91°F
36%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
90-91°F 36%
88-89°F 35%
92-93°F 19%
86-87°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
79°F or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$12 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$5 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$103 Vol.
10%
88-89°F
$37 Vol.
35%
90-91°F
$6 Vol.
36%
92-93°F
$52 Vol.
19%
94-95°F
$19 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$12 Vol.
1%
98°F or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA and National Weather Service model runs place Houston's August 10 high near the low 90s, driving the market's tight clustering around 88–93°F outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the afternoon sea breeze from the Gulf, which can cap temperatures through increased mixing and moisture, versus stronger high-pressure subsidence that favors clearer skies and greater urban heat-island warming in the metro area. Forecast ensembles show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and wind shifts, with any late-day thunderstorm development likely trimming the peak by 1–3°F. Traders weigh these variables against climatological August baselines near 94°F, creating balanced implied odds that reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$265End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA and National Weather Service model runs place Houston's August 10 high near the low 90s, driving the market's tight clustering around 88–93°F outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the afternoon sea breeze from the Gulf, which can cap temperatures through increased mixing and moisture, versus stronger high-pressure subsidence that favors clearer skies and greater urban heat-island warming in the metro area. Forecast ensembles show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and wind shifts, with any late-day thunderstorm development likely trimming the peak by 1–3°F. Traders weigh these variables against climatological August baselines near 94°F, creating balanced implied odds that reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$265End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA and National Weather Service model runs place Houston's August 10 high near the low 90s, driving the market's tight clustering around 88–93°F outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the afternoon sea breeze from the Gulf, which can cap temperatures through increased mixing and moisture, versus stronger high-pressure subsidence that favors clearer skies and greater urban heat-island warming in the metro area. Forecast ensembles show modest spread tied to cloud-cover timing and wind shifts, with any late-day thunderstorm development likely trimming the peak by 1–3°F. Traders weigh these variables against climatological August baselines near 94°F, creating balanced implied odds that reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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