Anthropic's strong position at 69% implied probability stems from its Claude models, particularly variants like Claude Fable-5 and Opus series, consistently topping the Text Arena Math leaderboard with the highest Elo ratings in mathematical reasoning tasks as of mid-August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on benchmarks such as MATH and competition-level problems through advanced reasoning chains and extended context handling, outpacing competitors in crowd-sourced Arena evaluations. OpenAI follows at 15% amid capable o-series and GPT-5 iterations strong in structured math, while Google's lower 5.9% share reflects solid but less dominant recent gains. Traders weigh upcoming model updates through October against the risk of leaderboard shifts from new releases, noting Anthropic's edge in verifiable capability demonstrations on this specific platform.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 16%
Google 6.6%
Alibaba 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
16%
7%
Alibaba
4%
Meta
3%
Amazon
3%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
2%
ByteDance
2%
Tencent
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
MiniMax
2%
Microsoft
2%
Mistral
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Baidu
1%
Nvidia
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meituan
1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 16%
Google 6.6%
Alibaba 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$611 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$230 Vol.
16%
$170 Vol.
7%
Alibaba
$93 Vol.
4%
Meta
$103 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$167 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$125 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$93 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$102 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$171 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$95 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$115 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$77 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$127 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$206 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$77 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$110 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$183 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$102 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$130 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's strong position at 69% implied probability stems from its Claude models, particularly variants like Claude Fable-5 and Opus series, consistently topping the Text Arena Math leaderboard with the highest Elo ratings in mathematical reasoning tasks as of mid-August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on benchmarks such as MATH and competition-level problems through advanced reasoning chains and extended context handling, outpacing competitors in crowd-sourced Arena evaluations. OpenAI follows at 15% amid capable o-series and GPT-5 iterations strong in structured math, while Google's lower 5.9% share reflects solid but less dominant recent gains. Traders weigh upcoming model updates through October against the risk of leaderboard shifts from new releases, noting Anthropic's edge in verifiable capability demonstrations on this specific platform.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$3,089End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's strong position at 69% implied probability stems from its Claude models, particularly variants like Claude Fable-5 and Opus series, consistently topping the Text Arena Math leaderboard with the highest Elo ratings in mathematical reasoning tasks as of mid-August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on benchmarks such as MATH and competition-level problems through advanced reasoning chains and extended context handling, outpacing competitors in crowd-sourced Arena evaluations. OpenAI follows at 15% amid capable o-series and GPT-5 iterations strong in structured math, while Google's lower 5.9% share reflects solid but less dominant recent gains. Traders weigh upcoming model updates through October against the risk of leaderboard shifts from new releases, noting Anthropic's edge in verifiable capability demonstrations on this specific platform.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,089End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's strong position at 69% implied probability stems from its Claude models, particularly variants like Claude Fable-5 and Opus series, consistently topping the Text Arena Math leaderboard with the highest Elo ratings in mathematical reasoning tasks as of mid-August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on benchmarks such as MATH and competition-level problems through advanced reasoning chains and extended context handling, outpacing competitors in crowd-sourced Arena evaluations. OpenAI follows at 15% amid capable o-series and GPT-5 iterations strong in structured math, while Google's lower 5.9% share reflects solid but less dominant recent gains. Traders weigh upcoming model updates through October against the risk of leaderboard shifts from new releases, noting Anthropic's edge in verifiable capability demonstrations on this specific platform.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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