The closely matched probabilities for second-best AI lab by end of October reflect intense competition among frontier labs, where Google leads at 39.5% implied odds ahead of Anthropic at 20.5% and Baidu at 20%. Traders are weighing factors such as large language model benchmark results on reasoning and coding tasks, scaling of training compute, talent retention, and multimodal capabilities against rivals. OpenAI’s lower 13.5% positioning suggests market consensus that it currently holds first place, leaving a dynamic race for second driven by recent model updates and platform integrations. Upcoming releases, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem momentum remain key swing factors in this uncertain contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 26%
Anthropic 21%
Meta 15%
Nvidia 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
28%
Anthropic
21%
Meta
15%
Nvidia
14%
Alibaba
14%
OpenAI
14%
Z.ai
13%
DeepSeek
13%
SpaceXAI
11%
Moonshot
11%
StepFun
11%
Baidu
7%
Thinky
6%
MiniMax
6%
ByteDance
6%
Microsoft
6%
Xiaomi
4%
Tencent
3%
Meituan
3%
Mistral
3%
Amazon
3%
Google 26%
Anthropic 21%
Meta 15%
Nvidia 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
$33 Vol.
28%
Anthropic
$35 Vol.
21%
Meta
$17 Vol.
15%
Nvidia
$35 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$35 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$35 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$35 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$35 Vol.
13%
SpaceXAI
$17 Vol.
11%
Moonshot
$35 Vol.
11%
StepFun
$37 Vol.
11%
Baidu
$35 Vol.
7%
Thinky
$95 Vol.
6%
MiniMax
$127 Vol.
6%
ByteDance
$102 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$141 Vol.
6%
Xiaomi
$110 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$24 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$63 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$42 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities for second-best AI lab by end of October reflect intense competition among frontier labs, where Google leads at 39.5% implied odds ahead of Anthropic at 20.5% and Baidu at 20%. Traders are weighing factors such as large language model benchmark results on reasoning and coding tasks, scaling of training compute, talent retention, and multimodal capabilities against rivals. OpenAI’s lower 13.5% positioning suggests market consensus that it currently holds first place, leaving a dynamic race for second driven by recent model updates and platform integrations. Upcoming releases, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem momentum remain key swing factors in this uncertain contest.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,161End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities for second-best AI lab by end of October reflect intense competition among frontier labs, where Google leads at 39.5% implied odds ahead of Anthropic at 20.5% and Baidu at 20%. Traders are weighing factors such as large language model benchmark results on reasoning and coding tasks, scaling of training compute, talent retention, and multimodal capabilities against rivals. OpenAI’s lower 13.5% positioning suggests market consensus that it currently holds first place, leaving a dynamic race for second driven by recent model updates and platform integrations. Upcoming releases, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem momentum remain key swing factors in this uncertain contest.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,161End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for second-best AI lab by end of October reflect intense competition among frontier labs, where Google leads at 39.5% implied odds ahead of Anthropic at 20.5% and Baidu at 20%. Traders are weighing factors such as large language model benchmark results on reasoning and coding tasks, scaling of training compute, talent retention, and multimodal capabilities against rivals. OpenAI’s lower 13.5% positioning suggests market consensus that it currently holds first place, leaving a dynamic race for second driven by recent model updates and platform integrations. Upcoming releases, safety evaluations, and developer ecosystem momentum remain key swing factors in this uncertain contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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