Traders see a tight race among OpenAI and Anthropic for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026 because recent GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 releases posted the highest math subscores near 96 percent on the June 2026 benchmark refresh, reflecting strong reasoning chains on contamination-free problems. OpenAI holds a slight edge in implied probability from consistent frontier-model cadence and scaling advantages, while Anthropic benefits from demonstrated gains in agentic math tasks. Chinese labs such as MiniMax, Moonshot, and Z.ai trail at lower market prices due to solid but less consistent results on the same objective math subset, though rapid iteration could close gaps before the next LiveBench update. Key swing factors include any new model drops or fine-tunes from these labs ahead of the October snapshot, with traders weighting verifiable capability jumps over marketing claims.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
OpenAI 42%
Anthropic 20%
Z.ai 20%
Tencent 18%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
51%
Anthropic
20%
Z.ai
20%
Tencent
18%
Microsoft
17%
MiniMax
8%
StepFun
8%
SpaceXAI
11%
DeepSeek
6%
ByteDance
5%
Alibaba
5%
Thinky
5%
Mistral
5%
Moonshot
5%
Amazon
4%
Nvidia
4%
Baidu
4%
Meta
4%
Xiaomi
19%
Meituan
2%
8%
OpenAI 42%
Anthropic 20%
Z.ai 20%
Tencent 18%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$106 Vol.
51%
Anthropic
$62 Vol.
20%
Z.ai
$62 Vol.
20%
Tencent
$62 Vol.
18%
Microsoft
$62 Vol.
17%
MiniMax
$62 Vol.
8%
StepFun
$67 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$74 Vol.
11%
DeepSeek
$67 Vol.
6%
ByteDance
$62 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$62 Vol.
5%
Thinky
$62 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$62 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$62 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$83 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$62 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$62 Vol.
4%
Meta
$88 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$62 Vol.
19%
Meituan
$62 Vol.
2%
$101 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tight race among OpenAI and Anthropic for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026 because recent GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 releases posted the highest math subscores near 96 percent on the June 2026 benchmark refresh, reflecting strong reasoning chains on contamination-free problems. OpenAI holds a slight edge in implied probability from consistent frontier-model cadence and scaling advantages, while Anthropic benefits from demonstrated gains in agentic math tasks. Chinese labs such as MiniMax, Moonshot, and Z.ai trail at lower market prices due to solid but less consistent results on the same objective math subset, though rapid iteration could close gaps before the next LiveBench update. Key swing factors include any new model drops or fine-tunes from these labs ahead of the October snapshot, with traders weighting verifiable capability jumps over marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,454End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tight race among OpenAI and Anthropic for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026 because recent GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 releases posted the highest math subscores near 96 percent on the June 2026 benchmark refresh, reflecting strong reasoning chains on contamination-free problems. OpenAI holds a slight edge in implied probability from consistent frontier-model cadence and scaling advantages, while Anthropic benefits from demonstrated gains in agentic math tasks. Chinese labs such as MiniMax, Moonshot, and Z.ai trail at lower market prices due to solid but less consistent results on the same objective math subset, though rapid iteration could close gaps before the next LiveBench update. Key swing factors include any new model drops or fine-tunes from these labs ahead of the October snapshot, with traders weighting verifiable capability jumps over marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$1,454End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight race among OpenAI and Anthropic for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026 because recent GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 releases posted the highest math subscores near 96 percent on the June 2026 benchmark refresh, reflecting strong reasoning chains on contamination-free problems. OpenAI holds a slight edge in implied probability from consistent frontier-model cadence and scaling advantages, while Anthropic benefits from demonstrated gains in agentic math tasks. Chinese labs such as MiniMax, Moonshot, and Z.ai trail at lower market prices due to solid but less consistent results on the same objective math subset, though rapid iteration could close gaps before the next LiveBench update. Key swing factors include any new model drops or fine-tunes from these labs ahead of the October snapshot, with traders weighting verifiable capability jumps over marketing claims.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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