Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 57% for the top LiveBench coding model by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 releases that currently top the platform's coding category with scores around 86%. These models demonstrate stronger agentic coding, self-verification, and performance on complex tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 83.9, which holds a narrower edge in some reasoning subtasks. The closely contested field reflects rapid iteration across labs, including Google's Gemini 3.6 Flash efficiency gains and DeepSeek's coding-focused retrains, alongside historical patterns of benchmark shifts from model updates. Traders weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in developer benchmarks against the potential for OpenAI or others to close gaps with new versions before the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 55%
OpenAI 32%
Google 3.3%
Nvidia 2.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
55%
OpenAI
32%
3%
Nvidia
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
2%
MiniMax
2%
Xiaomi
2%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meituan
1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 55%
OpenAI 32%
Google 3.3%
Nvidia 2.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$815 Vol.
55%
OpenAI
$385 Vol.
32%
$108 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$139 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$125 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$146 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$134 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$113 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$73 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$93 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$146 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$104 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$134 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$93 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$98 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$73 Vol.
1%
Meta
$93 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$93 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$93 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$98 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 57% for the top LiveBench coding model by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 releases that currently top the platform's coding category with scores around 86%. These models demonstrate stronger agentic coding, self-verification, and performance on complex tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 83.9, which holds a narrower edge in some reasoning subtasks. The closely contested field reflects rapid iteration across labs, including Google's Gemini 3.6 Flash efficiency gains and DeepSeek's coding-focused retrains, alongside historical patterns of benchmark shifts from model updates. Traders weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in developer benchmarks against the potential for OpenAI or others to close gaps with new versions before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$3,241End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 57% for the top LiveBench coding model by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 releases that currently top the platform's coding category with scores around 86%. These models demonstrate stronger agentic coding, self-verification, and performance on complex tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 83.9, which holds a narrower edge in some reasoning subtasks. The closely contested field reflects rapid iteration across labs, including Google's Gemini 3.6 Flash efficiency gains and DeepSeek's coding-focused retrains, alongside historical patterns of benchmark shifts from model updates. Traders weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in developer benchmarks against the potential for OpenAI or others to close gaps with new versions before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$3,241End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 57% for the top LiveBench coding model by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 releases that currently top the platform's coding category with scores around 86%. These models demonstrate stronger agentic coding, self-verification, and performance on complex tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 83.9, which holds a narrower edge in some reasoning subtasks. The closely contested field reflects rapid iteration across labs, including Google's Gemini 3.6 Flash efficiency gains and DeepSeek's coding-focused retrains, alongside historical patterns of benchmark shifts from model updates. Traders weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning in developer benchmarks against the potential for OpenAI or others to close gaps with new versions before the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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