**Anthropic holds the strongest position at 67.5% implied probability** because its latest frontier models—particularly Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—currently lead multiple independent August 2026 leaderboards on overall scores (e.g., 82.9 on BenchAlign v5) and excel in high-impact areas like SWE-bench coding performance and natural prose generation. These results stem from Anthropic’s focused iteration on instruction-following, enterprise-grade reliability, and agentic workflows, which have pulled ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini 3.x series in composite rankings as of mid-August. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at single-digit odds because their strongest models remain competitive on isolated benchmarks (reasoning or multimodal tasks) but trail in the aggregate metrics likely used for resolution, with no major capability jumps announced in the past month that could close the gap before October 31. Traders appear to view a sudden reversal as unlikely given typical release cadences and the short remaining window, though any surprise October model drop from a trailing lab could still shift sentiment. The “Style Control On” condition likely narrows evaluation to controlled, reproducible benchmarks rather than open-ended tests, further favoring Anthropic’s demonstrated strengths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 68%
Meituan 7.8%
Meta 7%
OpenAI 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
68%
Meituan
8%
Meta
7%
OpenAI
6%
DeepSeek
6%
Microsoft
5%
Nvidia
5%
Xiaomi
5%
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Alibaba
5%
StepFun
4%
Z.ai
4%
MiniMax
3%
Amazon
3%
Moonshot
3%
ByteDance
3%
Mistral
3%
Tencent
9%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
7%
Anthropic 68%
Meituan 7.8%
Meta 7%
OpenAI 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$255 Vol.
68%
Meituan
$110 Vol.
8%
Meta
$39 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
6%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
5%
Nvidia
$106 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$112 Vol.
5%
$39 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
5%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$47 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$110 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$106 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$112 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$110 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic holds the strongest position at 67.5% implied probability** because its latest frontier models—particularly Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—currently lead multiple independent August 2026 leaderboards on overall scores (e.g., 82.9 on BenchAlign v5) and excel in high-impact areas like SWE-bench coding performance and natural prose generation.
These results stem from Anthropic’s focused iteration on instruction-following, enterprise-grade reliability, and agentic workflows, which have pulled ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini 3.x series in composite rankings as of mid-August. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at single-digit odds because their strongest models remain competitive on isolated benchmarks (reasoning or multimodal tasks) but trail in the aggregate metrics likely used for resolution, with no major capability jumps announced in the past month that could close the gap before October 31.
Traders appear to view a sudden reversal as unlikely given typical release cadences and the short remaining window, though any surprise October model drop from a trailing lab could still shift sentiment. The “Style Control On” condition likely narrows evaluation to controlled, reproducible benchmarks rather than open-ended tests, further favoring Anthropic’s demonstrated strengths.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,787End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic holds the strongest position at 67.5% implied probability** because its latest frontier models—particularly Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—currently lead multiple independent August 2026 leaderboards on overall scores (e.g., 82.9 on BenchAlign v5) and excel in high-impact areas like SWE-bench coding performance and natural prose generation.
These results stem from Anthropic’s focused iteration on instruction-following, enterprise-grade reliability, and agentic workflows, which have pulled ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini 3.x series in composite rankings as of mid-August. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at single-digit odds because their strongest models remain competitive on isolated benchmarks (reasoning or multimodal tasks) but trail in the aggregate metrics likely used for resolution, with no major capability jumps announced in the past month that could close the gap before October 31.
Traders appear to view a sudden reversal as unlikely given typical release cadences and the short remaining window, though any surprise October model drop from a trailing lab could still shift sentiment. The “Style Control On” condition likely narrows evaluation to controlled, reproducible benchmarks rather than open-ended tests, further favoring Anthropic’s demonstrated strengths.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,787End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic holds the strongest position at 67.5% implied probability** because its latest frontier models—particularly Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5—currently lead multiple independent August 2026 leaderboards on overall scores (e.g., 82.9 on BenchAlign v5) and excel in high-impact areas like SWE-bench coding performance and natural prose generation. These results stem from Anthropic’s focused iteration on instruction-following, enterprise-grade reliability, and agentic workflows, which have pulled ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.x variants and Google’s Gemini 3.x series in composite rankings as of mid-August. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at single-digit odds because their strongest models remain competitive on isolated benchmarks (reasoning or multimodal tasks) but trail in the aggregate metrics likely used for resolution, with no major capability jumps announced in the past month that could close the gap before October 31. Traders appear to view a sudden reversal as unlikely given typical release cadences and the short remaining window, though any surprise October model drop from a trailing lab could still shift sentiment. The “Style Control On” condition likely narrows evaluation to controlled, reproducible benchmarks rather than open-ended tests, further favoring Anthropic’s demonstrated strengths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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