Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting leading scores around 83% on the benchmark’s refreshed, contamination-resistant tasks in recent August 2026 snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related releases by small margins in reasoning and language categories, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on iterative post-training improvements amid a tightly contested frontier where gaps between labs have narrowed to under three points. OpenAI’s strong coding and math results keep it competitive at lower implied odds, while lower-priced Chinese models like Kimi K3 trail despite open-weight accessibility. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 51%
OpenAI 25%
Alibaba 9%
Amazon 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
51%
OpenAI
25%
Alibaba
9%
Amazon
6%
Thinky
5%
Meituan
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Baidu
5%
5%
Mistral
5%
Xiaomi
5%
MiniMax
4%
Tencent
4%
StepFun
4%
ByteDance
4%
Z.ai
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Nvidia
2%
Microsoft
2%
Meta
2%
Moonshot
1%
Anthropic 51%
OpenAI 25%
Alibaba 9%
Amazon 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$260 Vol.
51%
OpenAI
$141 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$40 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$152 Vol.
6%
Thinky
$93 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$73 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$40 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$127 Vol.
5%
$73 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$73 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$70 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$93 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$131 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$70 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$60 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$60 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$127 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$126 Vol.
2%
Meta
$81 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$81 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting leading scores around 83% on the benchmark’s refreshed, contamination-resistant tasks in recent August 2026 snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related releases by small margins in reasoning and language categories, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on iterative post-training improvements amid a tightly contested frontier where gaps between labs have narrowed to under three points. OpenAI’s strong coding and math results keep it competitive at lower implied odds, while lower-priced Chinese models like Kimi K3 trail despite open-weight accessibility. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$2,100End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting leading scores around 83% on the benchmark’s refreshed, contamination-resistant tasks in recent August 2026 snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related releases by small margins in reasoning and language categories, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on iterative post-training improvements amid a tightly contested frontier where gaps between labs have narrowed to under three points. OpenAI’s strong coding and math results keep it competitive at lower implied odds, while lower-priced Chinese models like Kimi K3 trail despite open-weight accessibility. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$2,100End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting leading scores around 83% on the benchmark’s refreshed, contamination-resistant tasks in recent August 2026 snapshots. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related releases by small margins in reasoning and language categories, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on iterative post-training improvements amid a tightly contested frontier where gaps between labs have narrowed to under three points. OpenAI’s strong coding and math results keep it competitive at lower implied odds, while lower-priced Chinese models like Kimi K3 trail despite open-weight accessibility. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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