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icon for Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?

icon for Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Aug 31

Sep 30

Meta 34%

Anthropic 33%

OpenAI 32%

Google 31%

Polymarket
NEW

Meta 34%

Anthropic 33%

OpenAI 32%

Google 31%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Meta

Meta

$0 Vol.

34%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$0 Vol.

33%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$0 Vol.

32%

icon for Google

Google

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$0 Vol.

31%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$0 Vol.

29%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$0 Vol.

29%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$0 Vol.

24%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$0 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://livebench.ai/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://livebench.ai/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

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Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?

47%
icon for Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

36%
icon for Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

38%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Meta" at 34%, followed by "Anthropic" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?" is "Meta" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Anthropic" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.