Recent model releases and benchmark gains have kept multiple AI labs clustered near even odds for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October, with no single contender pulling ahead. Labs differentiate through specialized reasoning techniques such as chain-of-thought scaling, synthetic math data generation, and post-training alignment on competition problems rather than raw parameter count. Chinese developers including Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance have posted competitive results on MATH and GSM8K-style tasks via efficient architectures and large-scale pretraining, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic rely on proprietary reasoning models and larger inference budgets. Key upcoming catalysts include expected fall releases and any new public leaderboard updates that could shift trader consensus on relative math capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 13%
Alibaba 12%
Z.ai 11%
Xiaomi 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
25%
Alibaba
27%
Z.ai
11%
Xiaomi
9%
DeepSeek
9%
MiniMax
9%
ByteDance
7%
Tencent
6%
Microsoft
6%
Baidu
6%
Meta
6%
Amazon
6%
StepFun
6%
Anthropic
5%
OpenAI
5%
Meituan
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
Moonshot
4%
Mistral
2%
Nvidia
2%
Google 13%
Alibaba 12%
Z.ai 11%
Xiaomi 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
$110 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$117 Vol.
27%
Z.ai
$27 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$32 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$27 Vol.
9%
MiniMax
$32 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$80 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$100 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$207 Vol.
6%
Baidu
$32 Vol.
6%
Meta
$32 Vol.
6%
Amazon
$161 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$110 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$62 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$22 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$245 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$27 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$32 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$93 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$176 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark gains have kept multiple AI labs clustered near even odds for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October, with no single contender pulling ahead. Labs differentiate through specialized reasoning techniques such as chain-of-thought scaling, synthetic math data generation, and post-training alignment on competition problems rather than raw parameter count. Chinese developers including Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance have posted competitive results on MATH and GSM8K-style tasks via efficient architectures and large-scale pretraining, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic rely on proprietary reasoning models and larger inference budgets. Key upcoming catalysts include expected fall releases and any new public leaderboard updates that could shift trader consensus on relative math capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$1,722End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark gains have kept multiple AI labs clustered near even odds for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October, with no single contender pulling ahead. Labs differentiate through specialized reasoning techniques such as chain-of-thought scaling, synthetic math data generation, and post-training alignment on competition problems rather than raw parameter count. Chinese developers including Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance have posted competitive results on MATH and GSM8K-style tasks via efficient architectures and large-scale pretraining, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic rely on proprietary reasoning models and larger inference budgets. Key upcoming catalysts include expected fall releases and any new public leaderboard updates that could shift trader consensus on relative math capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,722End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and benchmark gains have kept multiple AI labs clustered near even odds for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October, with no single contender pulling ahead. Labs differentiate through specialized reasoning techniques such as chain-of-thought scaling, synthetic math data generation, and post-training alignment on competition problems rather than raw parameter count. Chinese developers including Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance have posted competitive results on MATH and GSM8K-style tasks via efficient architectures and large-scale pretraining, while OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic rely on proprietary reasoning models and larger inference budgets. Key upcoming catalysts include expected fall releases and any new public leaderboard updates that could shift trader consensus on relative math capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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