Traders view the contest for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of August as highly uncertain, with probabilities clustered near 50 percent across dozens of labs because no single company has established a decisive edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot show similar gains on tasks requiring multi-step proofs, symbolic manipulation, and competition-level problems, reflecting comparable advances in specialized fine-tuning and synthetic math data. Key differentiators include training corpus quality, integration of verifiable chain-of-thought techniques, and hardware scaling, yet historical patterns indicate these advantages often prove fleeting as competitors iterate rapidly. Any new model drop or benchmark update before the deadline could quickly realign trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 81%
Google 17%
OpenAI 3.3%
Baidu <1%
$21,990 Vol.
$21,990 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
81%
17%
OpenAI
3%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 81%
Google 17%
OpenAI 3.3%
Baidu <1%
$21,990 Vol.
$21,990 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$7,007 Vol.
81%
$2,576 Vol.
17%
OpenAI
$1,998 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$1,131 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,316 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$876 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$972 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,056 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$372 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$372 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$372 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$494 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$382 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$553 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$451 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$372 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$564 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$531 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the contest for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of August as highly uncertain, with probabilities clustered near 50 percent across dozens of labs because no single company has established a decisive edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot show similar gains on tasks requiring multi-step proofs, symbolic manipulation, and competition-level problems, reflecting comparable advances in specialized fine-tuning and synthetic math data. Key differentiators include training corpus quality, integration of verifiable chain-of-thought techniques, and hardware scaling, yet historical patterns indicate these advantages often prove fleeting as competitors iterate rapidly. Any new model drop or benchmark update before the deadline could quickly realign trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ET
Volume
$21,990End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the contest for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of August as highly uncertain, with probabilities clustered near 50 percent across dozens of labs because no single company has established a decisive edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot show similar gains on tasks requiring multi-step proofs, symbolic manipulation, and competition-level problems, reflecting comparable advances in specialized fine-tuning and synthetic math data. Key differentiators include training corpus quality, integration of verifiable chain-of-thought techniques, and hardware scaling, yet historical patterns indicate these advantages often prove fleeting as competitors iterate rapidly. Any new model drop or benchmark update before the deadline could quickly realign trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$21,990End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the contest for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of August as highly uncertain, with probabilities clustered near 50 percent across dozens of labs because no single company has established a decisive edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent releases from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot show similar gains on tasks requiring multi-step proofs, symbolic manipulation, and competition-level problems, reflecting comparable advances in specialized fine-tuning and synthetic math data. Key differentiators include training corpus quality, integration of verifiable chain-of-thought techniques, and hardware scaling, yet historical patterns indicate these advantages often prove fleeting as competitors iterate rapidly. Any new model drop or benchmark update before the deadline could quickly realign trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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