Trader sentiment for the second-best AI agent lab by end of September reflects a tightly contested field, with OpenAI leading at 35.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty. Recent model updates from multiple labs have showcased improved agentic features like multi-step planning, tool integration, and benchmark performance on tasks such as coding and web navigation, keeping outcomes fluid. Z.ai and SpaceXAI follow at 24% and 22%, respectively, as traders weigh factors including development velocity, ecosystem partnerships, and safety evaluations. Differentiators center on demonstrated real-world reliability versus marketing claims, with upcoming releases and third-party capability tests likely to sway consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZ.ai 27%
OpenAI 23%
SpaceXAI 22%
Moonshot 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Z.ai
27%
OpenAI
36%
SpaceXAI
23%
Moonshot
16%
Meta
15%
DeepSeek
14%
Mistral
12%
Amazon
11%
Xiaomi
11%
ByteDance
8%
Anthropic
7%
MiniMax
7%
Nvidia
6%
Alibaba
5%
Microsoft
5%
5%
Meituan
5%
Baidu
4%
Z.ai 27%
OpenAI 23%
SpaceXAI 22%
Moonshot 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Z.ai
$75 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$95 Vol.
36%
SpaceXAI
$75 Vol.
23%
Moonshot
$36 Vol.
16%
Meta
$36 Vol.
15%
DeepSeek
$36 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$36 Vol.
12%
Amazon
$36 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$41 Vol.
11%
ByteDance
$36 Vol.
8%
Anthropic
$36 Vol.
7%
MiniMax
$36 Vol.
7%
Nvidia
$60 Vol.
6%
Alibaba
$36 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$85 Vol.
5%
$61 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$36 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$36 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the second-best AI agent lab by end of September reflects a tightly contested field, with OpenAI leading at 35.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty. Recent model updates from multiple labs have showcased improved agentic features like multi-step planning, tool integration, and benchmark performance on tasks such as coding and web navigation, keeping outcomes fluid. Z.ai and SpaceXAI follow at 24% and 22%, respectively, as traders weigh factors including development velocity, ecosystem partnerships, and safety evaluations. Differentiators center on demonstrated real-world reliability versus marketing claims, with upcoming releases and third-party capability tests likely to sway consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$887End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the second-best AI agent lab by end of September reflects a tightly contested field, with OpenAI leading at 35.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty. Recent model updates from multiple labs have showcased improved agentic features like multi-step planning, tool integration, and benchmark performance on tasks such as coding and web navigation, keeping outcomes fluid. Z.ai and SpaceXAI follow at 24% and 22%, respectively, as traders weigh factors including development velocity, ecosystem partnerships, and safety evaluations. Differentiators center on demonstrated real-world reliability versus marketing claims, with upcoming releases and third-party capability tests likely to sway consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$887End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the second-best AI agent lab by end of September reflects a tightly contested field, with OpenAI leading at 35.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty. Recent model updates from multiple labs have showcased improved agentic features like multi-step planning, tool integration, and benchmark performance on tasks such as coding and web navigation, keeping outcomes fluid. Z.ai and SpaceXAI follow at 24% and 22%, respectively, as traders weigh factors including development velocity, ecosystem partnerships, and safety evaluations. Differentiators center on demonstrated real-world reliability versus marketing claims, with upcoming releases and third-party capability tests likely to sway consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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