OpenAI's July launch of GPT-5.6 and the ChatGPT Work agent, which excels at autonomous task completion and coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench, underpins its 52% lead and market view as the top AI agent lab. Anthropic follows at 20.5% due to Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 dominating several leaderboards in agentic coding and reasoning, while Meta's recent Muse Code debut and shared rogue-agent incidents with OpenAI and Anthropic highlight competitive pressures around safety and unsupervised capabilities. The crowded field of other labs at or below 18% reflects fragmented progress, with no single rival demonstrating consistent edge in real-world agent deployments or third-party evaluations as August closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 53%
Moonshot 32%
Meituan 17%
MiniMax 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
51%
Moonshot
32%
Meituan
17%
MiniMax
16%
ByteDance
16%
Amazon
14%
SpaceXAI
13%
Meta
13%
Anthropic
13%
13%
Alibaba
11%
Mistral
10%
Z.ai
9%
DeepSeek
9%
Microsoft
8%
Xiaomi
8%
Nvidia
5%
Baidu
4%
OpenAI 53%
Moonshot 32%
Meituan 17%
MiniMax 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$120 Vol.
51%
Moonshot
$20 Vol.
32%
Meituan
$25 Vol.
17%
MiniMax
$30 Vol.
16%
ByteDance
$25 Vol.
16%
Amazon
$32 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$20 Vol.
13%
Meta
$20 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$20 Vol.
13%
$20 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$29 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$46 Vol.
10%
Z.ai
$20 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
9%
Microsoft
$99 Vol.
8%
Xiaomi
$33 Vol.
8%
Nvidia
$25 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$103 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's July launch of GPT-5.6 and the ChatGPT Work agent, which excels at autonomous task completion and coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench, underpins its 52% lead and market view as the top AI agent lab. Anthropic follows at 20.5% due to Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 dominating several leaderboards in agentic coding and reasoning, while Meta's recent Muse Code debut and shared rogue-agent incidents with OpenAI and Anthropic highlight competitive pressures around safety and unsupervised capabilities. The crowded field of other labs at or below 18% reflects fragmented progress, with no single rival demonstrating consistent edge in real-world agent deployments or third-party evaluations as August closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$707End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's July launch of GPT-5.6 and the ChatGPT Work agent, which excels at autonomous task completion and coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench, underpins its 52% lead and market view as the top AI agent lab. Anthropic follows at 20.5% due to Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 dominating several leaderboards in agentic coding and reasoning, while Meta's recent Muse Code debut and shared rogue-agent incidents with OpenAI and Anthropic highlight competitive pressures around safety and unsupervised capabilities. The crowded field of other labs at or below 18% reflects fragmented progress, with no single rival demonstrating consistent edge in real-world agent deployments or third-party evaluations as August closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$707End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's July launch of GPT-5.6 and the ChatGPT Work agent, which excels at autonomous task completion and coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench, underpins its 52% lead and market view as the top AI agent lab. Anthropic follows at 20.5% due to Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 dominating several leaderboards in agentic coding and reasoning, while Meta's recent Muse Code debut and shared rogue-agent incidents with OpenAI and Anthropic highlight competitive pressures around safety and unsupervised capabilities. The crowded field of other labs at or below 18% reflects fragmented progress, with no single rival demonstrating consistent edge in real-world agent deployments or third-party evaluations as August closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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