Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 near 29–30 °C, driving the combined 87 % market-implied probability for those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers expected under typical late-summer East Asian monsoon conditions are limiting surface heating and capping daytime maxima below the seasonal average of 32–35 °C. Updated short-range model runs released in the past 24–48 hours show no significant shift in steering patterns or moisture profiles that would support a hotter or cooler outcome, keeping probabilities stable ahead of tomorrow’s official high-temperature verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
30°C 46%
29°C 39%
28°C 8%
31°C 8%
NEW
$17,178 Vol.
NEW
$17,178 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
8%
29°C
39%
30°C
46%
31°C
8%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
30°C 46%
29°C 39%
28°C 8%
31°C 8%
NEW
$17,178 Vol.
NEW
$17,178 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$504 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$504 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$447 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$535 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,166 Vol.
1%
28°C
$3,008 Vol.
8%
29°C
$2,892 Vol.
39%
30°C
$2,107 Vol.
46%
31°C
$3,417 Vol.
8%
32°C
$960 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$638 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 near 29–30 °C, driving the combined 87 % market-implied probability for those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers expected under typical late-summer East Asian monsoon conditions are limiting surface heating and capping daytime maxima below the seasonal average of 32–35 °C. Updated short-range model runs released in the past 24–48 hours show no significant shift in steering patterns or moisture profiles that would support a hotter or cooler outcome, keeping probabilities stable ahead of tomorrow’s official high-temperature verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$17,178End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 near 29–30 °C, driving the combined 87 % market-implied probability for those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers expected under typical late-summer East Asian monsoon conditions are limiting surface heating and capping daytime maxima below the seasonal average of 32–35 °C. Updated short-range model runs released in the past 24–48 hours show no significant shift in steering patterns or moisture profiles that would support a hotter or cooler outcome, keeping probabilities stable ahead of tomorrow’s official high-temperature verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,178End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 near 29–30 °C, driving the combined 87 % market-implied probability for those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers expected under typical late-summer East Asian monsoon conditions are limiting surface heating and capping daytime maxima below the seasonal average of 32–35 °C. Updated short-range model runs released in the past 24–48 hours show no significant shift in steering patterns or moisture profiles that would support a hotter or cooler outcome, keeping probabilities stable ahead of tomorrow’s official high-temperature verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions