**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 centers on 26–28°C, with 27°C holding the largest share at 47.5%.** This reflects the city’s humid subtropical climate in mid-August, when overnight lows are typically sustained by high humidity, residual daytime heat, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy or showery conditions. Recent short-term forecasts indicate a minimum near 27°C, consistent with ongoing thundershower activity and south-to-east flow that maintains warmth. Historical climatology shows August nighttime averages around 25–26°C, with slight upward bias possible from urban heat effects or suppressed clear-sky cooling. No significant cold advection or typhoon influences appear imminent for the date, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these values while allowing modest room for 26°C or 28°C depending on exact timing of any showers or cloud cover. Updated model runs closer to the event will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
27°C 49%
28°C 26%
26°C 16%
25°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
16%
27°C
49%
28°C
26%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 49%
28°C 26%
26°C 16%
25°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
22°C or below
$711 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$214 Vol.
1%
24°C
$11 Vol.
2%
25°C
$25 Vol.
5%
26°C
$137 Vol.
16%
27°C
$489 Vol.
49%
28°C
$468 Vol.
26%
29°C
$103 Vol.
5%
30°C
$20 Vol.
1%
31°C
$15 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$320 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 centers on 26–28°C, with 27°C holding the largest share at 47.5%.** This reflects the city’s humid subtropical climate in mid-August, when overnight lows are typically sustained by high humidity, residual daytime heat, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy or showery conditions.
Recent short-term forecasts indicate a minimum near 27°C, consistent with ongoing thundershower activity and south-to-east flow that maintains warmth. Historical climatology shows August nighttime averages around 25–26°C, with slight upward bias possible from urban heat effects or suppressed clear-sky cooling. No significant cold advection or typhoon influences appear imminent for the date, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these values while allowing modest room for 26°C or 28°C depending on exact timing of any showers or cloud cover. Updated model runs closer to the event will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$2,512End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 centers on 26–28°C, with 27°C holding the largest share at 47.5%.** This reflects the city’s humid subtropical climate in mid-August, when overnight lows are typically sustained by high humidity, residual daytime heat, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy or showery conditions.
Recent short-term forecasts indicate a minimum near 27°C, consistent with ongoing thundershower activity and south-to-east flow that maintains warmth. Historical climatology shows August nighttime averages around 25–26°C, with slight upward bias possible from urban heat effects or suppressed clear-sky cooling. No significant cold advection or typhoon influences appear imminent for the date, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these values while allowing modest room for 26°C or 28°C depending on exact timing of any showers or cloud cover. Updated model runs closer to the event will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,512End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11 centers on 26–28°C, with 27°C holding the largest share at 47.5%.** This reflects the city’s humid subtropical climate in mid-August, when overnight lows are typically sustained by high humidity, residual daytime heat, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy or showery conditions. Recent short-term forecasts indicate a minimum near 27°C, consistent with ongoing thundershower activity and south-to-east flow that maintains warmth. Historical climatology shows August nighttime averages around 25–26°C, with slight upward bias possible from urban heat effects or suppressed clear-sky cooling. No significant cold advection or typhoon influences appear imminent for the date, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these values while allowing modest room for 26°C or 28°C depending on exact timing of any showers or cloud cover. Updated model runs closer to the event will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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