**Persistent above-normal warmth and a forecast minimum near 29°C are anchoring trader expectations for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 11.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook projects a minimum of 29°C and maximum of 35°C under continued extremely hot conditions, consistent with the seasonal forecast for normal-to-above-normal temperatures through October 2026. Recent developments reinforce this: August 9 set a record high of 36.8°C at the Observatory, extending a stretch of elevated overnight lows that have limited nighttime cooling. Typical August climatology shows average lows around 26–28°C, but the ongoing heatwave—driven by regional atmospheric patterns and the long-term warming trend—has kept minima higher. With no significant typhoon or monsoon shift expected in the next 24–48 hours to introduce cooler air or increased cloud cover and rain, the market-implied 61% probability on 29°C (followed by 30°C and 28°C) reflects consensus around these official guidance values and the low likelihood of substantial deviation. Updated HKO briefings and model runs will be the next key inputs traders monitor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
29°C 61%
30°C 20%
28°C 19%
27°C 4%
NEW
$10,530 Vol.
NEW
$10,530 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
19%
29°C
61%
30°C
20%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 61%
30°C 20%
28°C 19%
27°C 4%
NEW
$10,530 Vol.
NEW
$10,530 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
24°C or below
$441 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$515 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$657 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$658 Vol.
4%
28°C
$963 Vol.
19%
29°C
$2,535 Vol.
61%
30°C
$2,257 Vol.
20%
31°C
$855 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$489 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$558 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$603 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent above-normal warmth and a forecast minimum near 29°C are anchoring trader expectations for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 11.**
The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook projects a minimum of 29°C and maximum of 35°C under continued extremely hot conditions, consistent with the seasonal forecast for normal-to-above-normal temperatures through October 2026. Recent developments reinforce this: August 9 set a record high of 36.8°C at the Observatory, extending a stretch of elevated overnight lows that have limited nighttime cooling. Typical August climatology shows average lows around 26–28°C, but the ongoing heatwave—driven by regional atmospheric patterns and the long-term warming trend—has kept minima higher. With no significant typhoon or monsoon shift expected in the next 24–48 hours to introduce cooler air or increased cloud cover and rain, the market-implied 61% probability on 29°C (followed by 30°C and 28°C) reflects consensus around these official guidance values and the low likelihood of substantial deviation. Updated HKO briefings and model runs will be the next key inputs traders monitor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$10,530End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent above-normal warmth and a forecast minimum near 29°C are anchoring trader expectations for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 11.**
The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook projects a minimum of 29°C and maximum of 35°C under continued extremely hot conditions, consistent with the seasonal forecast for normal-to-above-normal temperatures through October 2026. Recent developments reinforce this: August 9 set a record high of 36.8°C at the Observatory, extending a stretch of elevated overnight lows that have limited nighttime cooling. Typical August climatology shows average lows around 26–28°C, but the ongoing heatwave—driven by regional atmospheric patterns and the long-term warming trend—has kept minima higher. With no significant typhoon or monsoon shift expected in the next 24–48 hours to introduce cooler air or increased cloud cover and rain, the market-implied 61% probability on 29°C (followed by 30°C and 28°C) reflects consensus around these official guidance values and the low likelihood of substantial deviation. Updated HKO briefings and model runs will be the next key inputs traders monitor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,530End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-normal warmth and a forecast minimum near 29°C are anchoring trader expectations for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 11.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook projects a minimum of 29°C and maximum of 35°C under continued extremely hot conditions, consistent with the seasonal forecast for normal-to-above-normal temperatures through October 2026. Recent developments reinforce this: August 9 set a record high of 36.8°C at the Observatory, extending a stretch of elevated overnight lows that have limited nighttime cooling. Typical August climatology shows average lows around 26–28°C, but the ongoing heatwave—driven by regional atmospheric patterns and the long-term warming trend—has kept minima higher. With no significant typhoon or monsoon shift expected in the next 24–48 hours to introduce cooler air or increased cloud cover and rain, the market-implied 61% probability on 29°C (followed by 30°C and 28°C) reflects consensus around these official guidance values and the low likelihood of substantial deviation. Updated HKO briefings and model runs will be the next key inputs traders monitor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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