Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a daily high in the low-to-mid 90s for Houston on August 11, consistent with late-summer climatology where average highs reach 93–95 °F under southerly flow and high boundary-layer moisture. Afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms introduce modest cooling potential, while any delay in convective initiation could allow temperatures to reach the upper 90s before mixing occurs. These dynamics underpin the market’s strong weighting toward 94–95 °F, with lower-probability bins reflecting uncertainty in storm timing and the narrow historical range for record-setting heat in early August. Updated short-range model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final adjustments ahead of official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 11?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 11?
94-95°F 49%
92-93°F 27%
96-97°F 18%
90-91°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
49%
96-97°F
18%
98-99°F
4%
100-101°F
3%
102°F or higher
1%
94-95°F 49%
92-93°F 27%
96-97°F 18%
90-91°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
83°F or below
$142 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$12 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$23 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$45 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$2 Vol.
6%
92-93°F
$51 Vol.
27%
94-95°F
$1,786 Vol.
49%
96-97°F
$18 Vol.
18%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
4%
100-101°F
$5 Vol.
3%
102°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a daily high in the low-to-mid 90s for Houston on August 11, consistent with late-summer climatology where average highs reach 93–95 °F under southerly flow and high boundary-layer moisture. Afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms introduce modest cooling potential, while any delay in convective initiation could allow temperatures to reach the upper 90s before mixing occurs. These dynamics underpin the market’s strong weighting toward 94–95 °F, with lower-probability bins reflecting uncertainty in storm timing and the narrow historical range for record-setting heat in early August. Updated short-range model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final adjustments ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$2,088End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a daily high in the low-to-mid 90s for Houston on August 11, consistent with late-summer climatology where average highs reach 93–95 °F under southerly flow and high boundary-layer moisture. Afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms introduce modest cooling potential, while any delay in convective initiation could allow temperatures to reach the upper 90s before mixing occurs. These dynamics underpin the market’s strong weighting toward 94–95 °F, with lower-probability bins reflecting uncertainty in storm timing and the narrow historical range for record-setting heat in early August. Updated short-range model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final adjustments ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,088End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a daily high in the low-to-mid 90s for Houston on August 11, consistent with late-summer climatology where average highs reach 93–95 °F under southerly flow and high boundary-layer moisture. Afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms introduce modest cooling potential, while any delay in convective initiation could allow temperatures to reach the upper 90s before mixing occurs. These dynamics underpin the market’s strong weighting toward 94–95 °F, with lower-probability bins reflecting uncertainty in storm timing and the narrow historical range for record-setting heat in early August. Updated short-range model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final adjustments ahead of official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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