Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the August 11 high near 98–99°F under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the leading market-implied odds of 49% for that bin. A persistent subtropical ridge supports typical late-summer heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to cap readings, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 98°F and occasional peaks into the low 100s. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing or isolated convection introduces uncertainty that could shift outcomes into the 100–101°F range (33.5% implied), while updated NWS guidance remains the key near-term catalyst for trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 11?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 11?
100-101°F 44%
98-99°F 44%
96-97°F 8%
102-103°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
8%
98-99°F
44%
100-101°F
44%
102-103°F
7%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
3%
108°F or higher
1%
100-101°F 44%
98-99°F 44%
96-97°F 8%
102-103°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
89°F or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$12 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$10 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$63 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$2 Vol.
8%
98-99°F
$110 Vol.
44%
100-101°F
$57 Vol.
44%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
7%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
4%
106-107°F
$10 Vol.
3%
108°F or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the August 11 high near 98–99°F under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the leading market-implied odds of 49% for that bin. A persistent subtropical ridge supports typical late-summer heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to cap readings, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 98°F and occasional peaks into the low 100s. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing or isolated convection introduces uncertainty that could shift outcomes into the 100–101°F range (33.5% implied), while updated NWS guidance remains the key near-term catalyst for trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$277End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the August 11 high near 98–99°F under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the leading market-implied odds of 49% for that bin. A persistent subtropical ridge supports typical late-summer heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to cap readings, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 98°F and occasional peaks into the low 100s. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing or isolated convection introduces uncertainty that could shift outcomes into the 100–101°F range (33.5% implied), while updated NWS guidance remains the key near-term catalyst for trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$277End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the August 11 high near 98–99°F under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, driving the leading market-implied odds of 49% for that bin. A persistent subtropical ridge supports typical late-summer heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to cap readings, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 98°F and occasional peaks into the low 100s. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing or isolated convection introduces uncertainty that could shift outcomes into the 100–101°F range (33.5% implied), while updated NWS guidance remains the key near-term catalyst for trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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