**Strong mid-year momentum from major franchises has kept 2026 box office totals competitive with recent peaks, but uncertainty around the final slate leaves all ranking buckets closely matched at market-implied odds near 43%.** Domestic grosses reached roughly $6.3 billion by early August, running about 10% ahead of 2025’s pace at the same point thanks to hits including *Toy Story 5*, *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie*, and *The Odyssey*. Traders are weighing whether sustained audience appetite for event-level animation and superhero titles, plus holiday season releases, can push the year into the top six or nine all-time, versus a more typical post-pandemic finish in the middle or lower ranks. Key swing factors include upcoming tracking for remaining tentpoles, potential audience fatigue, and how 2026’s total compares against the $8.5–8.9 billion benchmarks set by 2023–2025.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
6th or higher 43%
7th-9th 43%
10th-12th 43%
13th-15th 43%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6th or higher
43%
7th-9th
43%
10th-12th
43%
13th-15th
43%
Below 15th
43%
6th or higher 43%
7th-9th 43%
10th-12th 43%
13th-15th 43%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6th or higher
$0 Vol.
43%
7th-9th
$0 Vol.
43%
10th-12th
$0 Vol.
43%
13th-15th
$0 Vol.
43%
Below 15th
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong mid-year momentum from major franchises has kept 2026 box office totals competitive with recent peaks, but uncertainty around the final slate leaves all ranking buckets closely matched at market-implied odds near 43%.** Domestic grosses reached roughly $6.3 billion by early August, running about 10% ahead of 2025’s pace at the same point thanks to hits including *Toy Story 5*, *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie*, and *The Odyssey*. Traders are weighing whether sustained audience appetite for event-level animation and superhero titles, plus holiday season releases, can push the year into the top six or nine all-time, versus a more typical post-pandemic finish in the middle or lower ranks. Key swing factors include upcoming tracking for remaining tentpoles, potential audience fatigue, and how 2026’s total compares against the $8.5–8.9 billion benchmarks set by 2023–2025.
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong mid-year momentum from major franchises has kept 2026 box office totals competitive with recent peaks, but uncertainty around the final slate leaves all ranking buckets closely matched at market-implied odds near 43%.** Domestic grosses reached roughly $6.3 billion by early August, running about 10% ahead of 2025’s pace at the same point thanks to hits including *Toy Story 5*, *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie*, and *The Odyssey*. Traders are weighing whether sustained audience appetite for event-level animation and superhero titles, plus holiday season releases, can push the year into the top six or nine all-time, versus a more typical post-pandemic finish in the middle or lower ranks. Key swing factors include upcoming tracking for remaining tentpoles, potential audience fatigue, and how 2026’s total compares against the $8.5–8.9 billion benchmarks set by 2023–2025.
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.
This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.
This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.
If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong mid-year momentum from major franchises has kept 2026 box office totals competitive with recent peaks, but uncertainty around the final slate leaves all ranking buckets closely matched at market-implied odds near 43%.** Domestic grosses reached roughly $6.3 billion by early August, running about 10% ahead of 2025’s pace at the same point thanks to hits including *Toy Story 5*, *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie*, and *The Odyssey*. Traders are weighing whether sustained audience appetite for event-level animation and superhero titles, plus holiday season releases, can push the year into the top six or nine all-time, versus a more typical post-pandemic finish in the middle or lower ranks. Key swing factors include upcoming tracking for remaining tentpoles, potential audience fatigue, and how 2026’s total compares against the $8.5–8.9 billion benchmarks set by 2023–2025.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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