The record-breaking $360 million domestic opening for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*—the biggest debut ever—drives trader expectations for a strong but moderated second-weekend hold in the $150-170 million range. Positive critical reception (around 90% on major aggregators), Tom Holland and Zendaya's star power, and rapid global momentum past $1.15 billion worldwide support solid audience retention, though typical post-opening drops for tentpoles and limited August competition shape the close probabilities across those bands. Historical patterns for MCU Spider-Man entries and tracking data highlight how word-of-mouth and family appeal could push toward the upper end, while any front-loaded effects or external factors might cap results lower. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty around exact percentage drops ahead of the August 7-9 frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
160-170m 35%
150-160m 28%
140-150m 27%
170-180m 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<130m
12%
130-140m
13%
140-150m
27%
150-160m
28%
160-170m
35%
170-180m
24%
180m+
8%
160-170m 35%
150-160m 28%
140-150m 27%
170-180m 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<130m
$16 Vol.
12%
130-140m
$16 Vol.
13%
140-150m
$16 Vol.
27%
150-160m
$41 Vol.
28%
160-170m
$41 Vol.
35%
170-180m
$41 Vol.
24%
180m+
$16 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The record-breaking $360 million domestic opening for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*—the biggest debut ever—drives trader expectations for a strong but moderated second-weekend hold in the $150-170 million range. Positive critical reception (around 90% on major aggregators), Tom Holland and Zendaya's star power, and rapid global momentum past $1.15 billion worldwide support solid audience retention, though typical post-opening drops for tentpoles and limited August competition shape the close probabilities across those bands. Historical patterns for MCU Spider-Man entries and tracking data highlight how word-of-mouth and family appeal could push toward the upper end, while any front-loaded effects or external factors might cap results lower. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty around exact percentage drops ahead of the August 7-9 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Volume
$184End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The record-breaking $360 million domestic opening for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*—the biggest debut ever—drives trader expectations for a strong but moderated second-weekend hold in the $150-170 million range. Positive critical reception (around 90% on major aggregators), Tom Holland and Zendaya's star power, and rapid global momentum past $1.15 billion worldwide support solid audience retention, though typical post-opening drops for tentpoles and limited August competition shape the close probabilities across those bands. Historical patterns for MCU Spider-Man entries and tracking data highlight how word-of-mouth and family appeal could push toward the upper end, while any front-loaded effects or external factors might cap results lower. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty around exact percentage drops ahead of the August 7-9 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$184End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The record-breaking $360 million domestic opening for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*—the biggest debut ever—drives trader expectations for a strong but moderated second-weekend hold in the $150-170 million range. Positive critical reception (around 90% on major aggregators), Tom Holland and Zendaya's star power, and rapid global momentum past $1.15 billion worldwide support solid audience retention, though typical post-opening drops for tentpoles and limited August competition shape the close probabilities across those bands. Historical patterns for MCU Spider-Man entries and tracking data highlight how word-of-mouth and family appeal could push toward the upper end, while any front-loaded effects or external factors might cap results lower. The tight spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty around exact percentage drops ahead of the August 7-9 frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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