Record-shattering $360 million domestic opening for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” on July 31 drives the heavy weighting toward a sub-$180 million second weekend, as blockbusters routinely experience 50-60% drops once initial hype fades. Strong reviews, Tom Holland’s star power, and solid word-of-mouth provide some cushion against steeper declines, yet limited competition in early August and typical superhero audience fatigue still favor the lower range. Traders see the 12% chance for $220 million-plus as requiring unusually resilient legs that exceed most MCU precedents after record debuts. The upcoming weekend’s actual hold will clarify whether critical acclaim and franchise momentum can outperform historical drop patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 64%
220m+ 11%
190-200m 10%
200-210m 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<180m
64%
180-190m
9%
190-200m
10%
200-210m
10%
210-220m
8%
220m+
11%
<180m 64%
220m+ 11%
190-200m 10%
200-210m 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<180m
$591 Vol.
64%
180-190m
$205 Vol.
9%
190-200m
$198 Vol.
10%
200-210m
$216 Vol.
10%
210-220m
$455 Vol.
8%
220m+
$1,318 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Record-shattering $360 million domestic opening for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” on July 31 drives the heavy weighting toward a sub-$180 million second weekend, as blockbusters routinely experience 50-60% drops once initial hype fades. Strong reviews, Tom Holland’s star power, and solid word-of-mouth provide some cushion against steeper declines, yet limited competition in early August and typical superhero audience fatigue still favor the lower range. Traders see the 12% chance for $220 million-plus as requiring unusually resilient legs that exceed most MCU precedents after record debuts. The upcoming weekend’s actual hold will clarify whether critical acclaim and franchise momentum can outperform historical drop patterns.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,983End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Record-shattering $360 million domestic opening for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” on July 31 drives the heavy weighting toward a sub-$180 million second weekend, as blockbusters routinely experience 50-60% drops once initial hype fades. Strong reviews, Tom Holland’s star power, and solid word-of-mouth provide some cushion against steeper declines, yet limited competition in early August and typical superhero audience fatigue still favor the lower range. Traders see the 12% chance for $220 million-plus as requiring unusually resilient legs that exceed most MCU precedents after record debuts. The upcoming weekend’s actual hold will clarify whether critical acclaim and franchise momentum can outperform historical drop patterns.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$2,983End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Record-shattering $360 million domestic opening for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” on July 31 drives the heavy weighting toward a sub-$180 million second weekend, as blockbusters routinely experience 50-60% drops once initial hype fades. Strong reviews, Tom Holland’s star power, and solid word-of-mouth provide some cushion against steeper declines, yet limited competition in early August and typical superhero audience fatigue still favor the lower range. Traders see the 12% chance for $220 million-plus as requiring unusually resilient legs that exceed most MCU precedents after record debuts. The upcoming weekend’s actual hold will clarify whether critical acclaim and franchise momentum can outperform historical drop patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions