JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 11 show a minimum of 22°C under increasing cloud cover and rain chances later in the period, slightly below the long-term normal of 23.7°C. Trader consensus splits narrowly between 22°C and 23°C because overnight radiative cooling depends on variable factors such as cloud thickness, wind speed, and humidity, which can shift the low by 1°C. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo often add 1–2°C relative to rural stations used in official guidance, while model runs show modest spread in steering patterns and frontal timing. Newer high-resolution guidance expected overnight could refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
23°C 51%
22°C 42%
24°C 5%
21°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
42%
23°C
51%
24°C
5%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 51%
22°C 42%
24°C 5%
21°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
$164 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$111 Vol.
1%
21°C
$88 Vol.
3%
22°C
$280 Vol.
42%
23°C
$321 Vol.
51%
24°C
$314 Vol.
5%
25°C
$116 Vol.
3%
26°C
$610 Vol.
1%
27°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 11 show a minimum of 22°C under increasing cloud cover and rain chances later in the period, slightly below the long-term normal of 23.7°C. Trader consensus splits narrowly between 22°C and 23°C because overnight radiative cooling depends on variable factors such as cloud thickness, wind speed, and humidity, which can shift the low by 1°C. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo often add 1–2°C relative to rural stations used in official guidance, while model runs show modest spread in steering patterns and frontal timing. Newer high-resolution guidance expected overnight could refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$2,599End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 11 show a minimum of 22°C under increasing cloud cover and rain chances later in the period, slightly below the long-term normal of 23.7°C. Trader consensus splits narrowly between 22°C and 23°C because overnight radiative cooling depends on variable factors such as cloud thickness, wind speed, and humidity, which can shift the low by 1°C. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo often add 1–2°C relative to rural stations used in official guidance, while model runs show modest spread in steering patterns and frontal timing. Newer high-resolution guidance expected overnight could refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,599End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 11 show a minimum of 22°C under increasing cloud cover and rain chances later in the period, slightly below the long-term normal of 23.7°C. Trader consensus splits narrowly between 22°C and 23°C because overnight radiative cooling depends on variable factors such as cloud thickness, wind speed, and humidity, which can shift the low by 1°C. Urban heat-island effects in central Tokyo often add 1–2°C relative to rural stations used in official guidance, while model runs show modest spread in steering patterns and frontal timing. Newer high-resolution guidance expected overnight could refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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