Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs point to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Tokyo on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent influence of the Pacific High maintains above-normal warmth typical of mid-August climatology, while variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers could cap afternoon heating. Historical data show average highs of 31–32°C, but localized urban heat-island effects and short-term model shifts in boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty that keeps 28°C and 30°C as close contenders. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
29°C 39%
28°C 25%
30°C 24%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
25%
29°C
39%
30°C
24%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 39%
28°C 25%
30°C 24%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$632 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,407 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,181 Vol.
1%
26°C
$451 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,231 Vol.
4%
28°C
$853 Vol.
25%
29°C
$648 Vol.
39%
30°C
$1,533 Vol.
24%
31°C
$712 Vol.
6%
32°C
$390 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$731 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs point to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Tokyo on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent influence of the Pacific High maintains above-normal warmth typical of mid-August climatology, while variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers could cap afternoon heating. Historical data show average highs of 31–32°C, but localized urban heat-island effects and short-term model shifts in boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty that keeps 28°C and 30°C as close contenders. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$9,546End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs point to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Tokyo on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent influence of the Pacific High maintains above-normal warmth typical of mid-August climatology, while variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers could cap afternoon heating. Historical data show average highs of 31–32°C, but localized urban heat-island effects and short-term model shifts in boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty that keeps 28°C and 30°C as close contenders. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,546End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs point to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Tokyo on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent influence of the Pacific High maintains above-normal warmth typical of mid-August climatology, while variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers could cap afternoon heating. Historical data show average highs of 31–32°C, but localized urban heat-island effects and short-term model shifts in boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty that keeps 28°C and 30°C as close contenders. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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