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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Jul 31

Aug 1

Aug 2

Aug 3

Jul 31

Aug 1

Aug 2

Aug 3

24°C 43%

25°C 33%

23°C 19%

26°C 10%

Polymarket
NEW

24°C 43%

25°C 33%

23°C 19%

26°C 10%

Polymarket
NEW

20°C or below

$436 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$179 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$794 Vol.

1%

23°C

$1,013 Vol.

19%

24°C

$1,008 Vol.

43%

25°C

$2,515 Vol.

33%

26°C

$976 Vol.

10%

27°C

$545 Vol.

1%

28°C

$466 Vol.

<1%

29°C

$312 Vol.

<1%

30°C or higher

$208 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models point to a minimum temperature of 24–25°C on August 2, driven by expected widespread cloud cover, showers, and high humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures overall, yet localized conditions—including potential tropical moisture and weak winds—favor slightly cooler overnight readings compared to the August climatological average low near 26–27°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with clearer skies or heavier rain as the main variables that could shift the outcome by 1°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,452
End Date
Aug 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models point to a minimum temperature of 24–25°C on August 2, driven by expected widespread cloud cover, showers, and high humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures overall, yet localized conditions—including potential tropical moisture and weak winds—favor slightly cooler overnight readings compared to the August climatological average low near 26–27°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with clearer skies or heavier rain as the main variables that could shift the outcome by 1°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,452
End Date
Aug 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "24°C" at 43%, followed by "25°C" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?" is "24°C" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.